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Clinton or Trump: Who Would Add More to Debt Burden in 10 Years?

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Nov. 22 2019, Updated 6:16 a.m. ET

$200 billion or $5.3 trillion over 10 years

According to estimates of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (or CRFB), Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s economic plan would increase public debt in the United States (IVV) (VOO) by about $200 billion over the next ten years. That would lead to public debt becoming 86.0% of GDP. It currently stands at 77.0%.

Republican nominee Donald Trump’s plan could raise this figure to 105.0%, according to the CRFB. The CRFB estimates that Trump’s plan would increase US public debt by $5.3 trillion in the next ten years.

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Here’s the math

The CRFB has shown how it calculated these figures. Over the next ten years, the CRFB estimates that Clinton’s plan would generate $1.5 trillion in higher taxes, offset by -$1.7 trillion in higher spending and -$0.05 trillion in additional interest costs, thereby creating a $200 billion fiscal surplus to reduce America’s debt burden.

According to the CRFB, Trump’s plan would most likely lead to a -$5.8 trillion from tax cuts and another -$0.7 trillion from higher interest costs, supported by only $1.2 trillion from primary spending cuts. The CRFB believes that would leave the US economy (IWF) (IWD) (SQQQ) with a net $5.3 trillion in increased fiscal deficit over the next ten years.

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