Oasis’s stock drivers
In this part of our series on Oasis Petroleum (OAS), we’ll compare the company’s stock movements to movements in the broader market, crude prices, natural gas prices, and the US dollar index (or USDX).
As we noted previously in this series, Oasis’s stock has risen 6% YoY (year-over-year). Meanwhile, peers Newfield Exploration (NFX) and Continental Resources (CLR) have risen ~26% and ~69%, respectively, while Hess (HES) has fallen ~8% in the same period. Notably, these companies combined make up 5.6% of the iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO).
Oasis Petroleum’s stock has recently been climbing after breaking its uptrend in July and August. Since the beginning of this year, OAS’s stock had been consistently increasing—and mirroring natural gas (UNG) and crude oil (USO) price movements—before dipping in July.
The correlation coefficient between OAS’s stock price and the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) price (USO) from September 2015 to September 13, 2016, is ~0.67. This indicates a strong positive correlation between the two.
The correlation coefficient between OAS’s stock price and the price of natural gas (UNG) from September 2015 to September 13, 2016, is ~0.15. This also indicates a positive but far lower correlation between the two.
Compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), OAS has underperformed, and SPY has risen ~8.8% since September 2015. The US dollar index has returned about 0.33% since September 2015.
In the next part, we’ll see how OAS’s implied volatility has changed in 2016.