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What’s the EIA’s Gasoline Price Forecast for 2016 and 2017?

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EIA’s gasoline price forecasts

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its monthly STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook) report on September 7, 2016. It estimates that US retail gasoline prices, including taxes, will average $2.08 per gallon in 2016 and $2.26 per gallon in 2017, respectively. The EIA expects US retail gasoline prices to trade lower in 4Q16.

In its August STEO report, the EIA estimated that US retail gasoline prices, including taxes, will average $2.06 per gallon in 2016 and $2.26 per gallon in 2017, respectively.

The EIA upgraded US retail gasoline by $0.02 per gallon for 2016. Higher gasoline prices in 2016 will have a positive impact on US refiners and oil producers such as Western Refining (WNR), W&T Offshore (WTI), Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO), Tesoro (TSO), and Cobalt International Energy (CIE).

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Impact 

Volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices also impacts funds such as the United States Gasoline Fund (UGA), the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF (RYE), the Fidelity MSCI Energy (FENY), the ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG), the United States Brent Oil (BNO), and the United States 12 Month Oil ETF (USL).

In the next part of this series, we’ll take a look at gasoline inventories. 

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