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Why ConocoPhillips’s Production Is on a Downward Trend in 2016

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ConocoPhillips’s 2Q16 production

For 2Q16, ConocoPhillips (COP) reported total production of 1,546 Mboe (thousand barrels of oil equivalent) per day, which is higher than its 2Q16 production guidance range of 1,500–1,540 Mboe per day.

Even though ConocoPhillips beat its own production guidance, its 2Q16 production is ~3% lower than its 2Q15 production of 1,595 Mboe per day.

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ConocoPhillips’s production trend

As you can see in the above graph, ConocoPhillips’s quarterly production volumes peaked in 1Q15. In the first two quarters of 2016, COP reported falling productions.

Sequentially, ConocoPhillips’s 2Q16 production is ~32 Mboe, or ~2%, lower than 1Q16. Its lower production in 2Q16 can be attributed to the normal field decline, dispositions, planned downtime due to turnaround activity, and the impact of wildfires in Canada.

An update of ConocoPhillips’s turnaround activity

In 2Q16, ConocoPhillips safely completed its major turnaround activity in Europe. This affected the company’s 2Q16 production from Europe and North Africa by almost 20 Mboe per day, or ~10%, when compared to 2Q15. In 2Q16, COP’s production from Europe and North Africa came in at ~187 Mboe per day.

A similar significant turnaround activity is planned for Alaska in 3Q16 at both Kuparuk and Alpine. This will affect COP’s production from Alaska in 3Q16. In 2Q16, COP’s production from Alaska was ~179 Mboe per day.

ConocoPhillips’s production guidance

For 3Q16, ConocoPhillips expects total production of 1,510–1,550 Mboe per day, a midpoint fall of ~2% compared to 3Q15 production. This is due to significant planned turnaround activity in 3Q16.

For 2016, ConocoPhillips has increased its full-year production guidance to 1,540–1,570 Mboe per day, a midpoint increase of ~30 Mboe per day, or ~2%, from its previous guidance of ~1,525 Mboe per day.

Last month, S&P 500 (SPY) upstream companies such as Devon Energy (DVN), Southwestern Energy (SWN), and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) have also increased their 2016 production guidance.

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