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Will Hain Celestial’s Revenue Beat Estimates in Fiscal 4Q16?

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Revenue contributors

As we discussed in the second part of this series, Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) operates through four segments: the United States, the United Kingdom, Hain Pure Protein, and Rest of World. The Rest of the World segment includes Canada and Continental Europe. Together, the United States and the United Kingdom contribute around 70%–75% of the company’s total revenue each quarter.

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Revenue expectations for 2016

Analysts expect revenue to be $769 million for fiscal 4Q16. This represents a rise of 10% compared to revenue of $698 million in fiscal 4Q15. The company has surpassed estimates in two quarters of fiscal 2016. For fiscal 2016, analysts expect revenue to be around $3.0 billion—an increase of approximately 10% compared to fiscal 2015. The company could continue to benefit from acquisitions in the fourth quarter.

What does Hain Celestial expect for 2016?

During the 3Q16 earnings release, Hain Celestial confirmed its previously updated guidance. The guidance includes the acquisition of Orchard House. However, it excludes the impact of any future acquisitions. The company expects total net sales to be $2.94 billion–$2.96 billion, a rise of 9%–10% compared to fiscal 2015. For fiscal 4Q16, management expects revenue to come in around $756 million–$776 million, a rise of 8%–11% compared to fiscal 4Q15.

Peers’ revenue estimates

Hain Celestial’s peers in the industry include Pinnacle Foods (PF), ConAgra Foods (CAG), and Cal-Maine Foods (CALM). The following are revenue estimates for these peers:

  • Pinnacle Foods’ revenue for fiscal 3Q16 is expected to rise by 21%.
  • ConAgra Foods’ revenue for fiscal 1Q17 is expected to fall by 2%.
  • Cal-Maine Foods’ revenue for fiscal 1Q17 is projected to fall by 56%.

The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) and the iShares Morningstar Mid-Cap Value ETF (JKI) invest ~1.0% and 1.4% of their respective holdings in ConAgra Foods.

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