Petrobras’s stock performance
Earlier in the series, we discussed Petrobras’s (PBR) 2Q16 and 1H16 earnings and segment-by-segment performance. In this part, we’ll discuss the company’s stock performance.
Petrobras announced its earnings on August 11, 2016, after the Market closed. On that day, PBR’s stock opened at $8.47 per share, higher than the previous day’s close of $8.43. Petrobras saw highs of $8.73 and lows of $8.36 during the day. Eventually, Petrobras closed at $8.67, around 2.9% higher than the previous day’s close.
On the day, PBR’s peers Statoil (STO), PetroChina (PTR), and Total (TOT) rose by 2.5%, 1.4%, and 1.2%, respectively. The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) has ~11% exposure to energy sector stocks.
Petrobras’s stock correlation to crude oil and natural gas prices
On August 11, crude oil’s price rose by 4.3%, but natural gas fell by 0.4% on the day.
Petrobras’s stock shows a strong positive correlation to crude oil’s price. The correlation coefficient of Petrobras’s stock compared to WTI (West Texas Intermediate) for the past 12 months stands at 0.61. This means that on average, 61% of movements in Petrobras’s stock price can be explained by changes in WTI’s price.
However, the stock’s correlation to natural gas is feeble, standing at 0.13.
Petrobras’s 2Q16 capex update
Petrobras incurred capital expenditure (capex) of $3.8 billion in 2Q16. Of this capex, $3.4 billion went toward its Exploration and Production segment, $235 million went toward its Refining, Transport, and Marketing segment, and the rest went toward its Gas and Power, Distribution, and Biofuels segments.