Analysts Expect iPhone Sales to See 1st Year-over-Year Drop in 2016


Aug. 25 2016, Updated 9:05 a.m. ET

Smartphone shipments to grow 5% YoY in 2016

According to research firm Canalys, Apple’s iPhone sales will fall year-over-year (or YoY) for the first time in 2016. As we discussed in the earlier parts of this series, Apple is struggling to maintain market share in China and India due to increasing competition and availability of cheaper alternatives.

As shown below, China (FXI) is expected to drive global smartphone sales in 2016 as well and will continue to be the largest smartphone market in the world. Canalys, however, expects the launch of Apple’s iPhone 7 to drive sales in Western Europe and North America in the last quarter of 2016.

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iPhone shipments expected to fall to 227 million in 2016

According to Apple Insider, Apple’s iPhone (AAPL) shipments may fall to 227 million units in 2016 compared to 232 million units in 2015. This will be the first YoY (year-over-year) fall ever for Apple’s flagship product. Brean Capital expects Apple’s total iPhone sales to fall by 16 million units to 216 million units in 2016.

In 1Q16, iPhone sales reached 51.2 million units. Shipments fell 21% YoY to 40.4 million units in 2Q16 and are expected to reach 50 million units in 3Q16. For the holiday quarter, Brean Capital expects the iPhone 7 to see sales of up to 70 million units.

Brean Capital projects shipments of 237 million units for Apple in 2017, exceeding the 232 million shipments in 2015. This would set a new record for Apple.


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