Will Panera Bread’s 2Q16 Results Drive Its Share Price?



Panera Bread’s stock performance

Panera Bread (PNRA) is set to announce its 2Q16 results on July 26, 2016, after the Market closes. In 2015, the company delivered returns of 11.4%, and year-to-date, the company’s share price has risen by 7.2%.

The company’s better-than-expected 1Q16 results and the rise in its management’s 2016 guidance increased investors’ confidence, which led to a rise in its share price.

However, volatility in the broader market and concerns over a fall in EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) margins due to increased expenses associated with the implementation of Panera 2.0 brought Panera’s share price down. From the announcement of its 1Q16 results on April 26, 2016, to July 18, 2016, the company’s stock price has fallen by 1.8%.

During the same period, Panera’s peers Shake Shack (SHAK) and Brinker International (EAT) returned 0.3% and 4.7%, respectively. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), which had been struck by food safety issues in October 2015, continued to struggle, with a share price fall of 8.3%.

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Series overview

This pre-earnings series will explore what we can expect from Panera Bread’s 2Q16 earnings release. The series will cover analysts’ estimates for revenue, EBIT margins, and earnings per share. To wrap up this series, we’ll look at the company’s valuation multiple and expected stock price over the next 12 months.

First, let’s start by looking at Panera’s 2Q16 revenue estimates.


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