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Analysts: Summer Weather Could Drive Natural Gas Prices Higher


Nov. 20 2020, Updated 3:48 p.m. ET

High inventories 

US natural gas inventories are 19% higher than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could keep a lid on US natural gas prices. However, seasonal weather conditions would have a short-term impact on natural gas prices due to the change in the demand for natural gas.

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US natural gas price forecast

JJ Woods Associates estimates that US natural gas could go as high as $3.05 per MMBtu (British thermal units in millions) before the end of the summer. Summer is expected to end in the next five weeks. For more on the weather, please read the first part of the series. 

The Price Futures Group estimated that $3 per MMBtu might be the upper limit for US natural gas prices in 2016 despite hot summer weather. Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices might not exceed $3.20 per MMBtu in August 2016. They also might not exceed $3.20 per MMBtu from August–October 2016.

The World Bank forecasts that US natural gas prices will average $2.50 per MMBtu in 2016 and $3.00 per MMBtu in 2017 due to high inventories.

High natural gas prices positively impacts the earnings of oil and gas exploration and production companies such as Range Resources (RRC), Cimarex Energy (XEC), and EQT (EQT).

They also impact funds such as Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bull 3X Shares ETF (GASL), the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), and the PowerShares DWA Energy Momentum ETF (PXI).

For related analysis, you can visit Market Realist’s Energy and Power page.


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