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Tecfidera Is Still a Key Growth Driver for Biogen in 2016

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Multiple sclerosis market opportunity

Given multiple sclerosis’s (or MS) worldwide prevalence of about 2.3 million patients and only 850,000 treated patients, the MS segment is expected to offer a substantial growth opportunity to Biogen (BIIB).

According to Biogen’s estimates, the number of treated patients has increased at a mid-single-digit growth rate globally, which includes low single-digit percentage growth in treated patients in the United States and a high single-digit percentage rise in Europe.

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As MS diagnosis rates in Europe continue to be high, Biogen expects to benefit from rising number of MS patients in future years. With 38% of global market share in the MS segment, Biogen is a strong competitor for other MS players such as Novartis (NVS), Sanofi (SNY), and Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA). To know more about Biogen’s MS portfolio, please refer to Biogen: Global Leader in the Multiple Sclerosis Market.

Tecfidera’s growth trend

While Tecfidera’s revenues suffered in 2015 due to concerns related to its safety profile, the drug has managed to win back the confidence of the physician and patient community in 2016. Wall Street analysts expect Tecfidera to register sales of about $4.2 billion in 2016, which will be a year-over-year (or YoY) rise of about 45.5%.

Biogen has also projected that the therapy will manage to capture 25% of total MS patients who have been newly diagnosed or who plan to switch from any other MS regimen.

If Tecfidera manages to surpass these projections, it may boost Biogen’s share price as well as that of the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF). Biogen makes up about 0.59% of IWF’s total portfolio holdings. To know more about Tecfidera, please refer to Tecfidera Continues to Be Key Revenue Driver for Biogen in 1Q16.

In the next article, we will further analyze the projected performance of Biogen’s MS franchise in greater detail.

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