How Will Shire’s ADHD Franchise Perform in 2Q16?



Shire’s ADHD franchise

Shire’s (SHPG) ADHD franchise includes Vyvanse, Adderall XR, and Intuniv. Vyvanse, the major drug, constitutes almost 80% of the company’s total ADHD portfolio. Shire plans label expansion for the key drug to maintain its sales. For more information on the drug, please refer to How Vyvanse Could Fuel Shire’s ADHD Portfolio Sales.

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How much will Vyvanse and Adderall drive earnings in 2Q16?

Wall Street analysts expect Vyvanse to earn $498.5 million in 2Q16 and $494.6 million in 3Q16. The drug’s contribution to total revenue is expected to decline to 21.9% in 2Q16 from 29.8% in 1Q16. One-third of Vyvanse growth in the first quarter came from price while two-thirds was driven by volume. The drug shares the ADHD market with Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) Concerta and Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Strattera.

Analysts project Adderall XR to record $83.4 million in 2Q16 and $74.5 million in 3Q16. The gradual decline in the drug’s revenue is due to generic competition. Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) manufactures a generic version of both Intuniv and Adderall XR.

Along with the established three products, the ADHD portfolio also includes the pipeline drug SHP465. The product will protect the ADHD franchise once Vyvanse’s patent expires. For more information on the drug, please refer to How Shire’s Robust Pipeline Could Drive Its Valuation.

If you want diversified exposure to high-risk pharmaceuticals and biotechnology equities such as Shire, you can choose to invest in the Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH). Shire makes up 4.6% of the fund’s total assets.

In the next article, let’s have a look at Shire’s gastrointestinal franchise.


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