ConocoPhillips’s Stock Price Gains as Market Cap Losses Slow



ConocoPhillips’s stock price action

After losing ~62% of its market capitalization from July 2014 to February 2016, ConocoPhillips (COP) is finally seeing signs of a new uptrend in its stock price.

In April 2016, ConocoPhillips’s stock crossed its 200-day moving average for the first time in seventeen months. Currently, it’s consolidating around its 200-day moving average. Since its February 2016 bottom, ConocoPhillips’s stock price has risen by ~39%.

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ConocoPhillips’s relative performance

Recently, COP has shown relative weakness compared to other crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) producers. In the last three months, ConocoPhillips’ stock price has fallen by ~2%. Compare these returns to those of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), which has risen by ~5% during the same period.

ConocoPhillips’s year-to-date performance

In 2016, COP has been underperforming bigger upstream companies from the S&P 500 (SPY). In 2016, COP has fallen by ~7%, whereas bigger oil and gas producers Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and EOG Resources (EOG) have risen by ~17%, ~25%, and ~20%, respectively.

ConocoPhillips’s stock price performance after its past earnings

ConocoPhillips reported its 1Q16 earnings before the Market opened on April 28, 2016. In 1Q16, excluding one-time items, ConocoPhillips reported earnings per share (or EPS) of -$0.95, $0.09 better than analysts’ consensus estimated EPS of -$1.04. Following its 1Q16 earnings release, better-than-expected earnings saw ConocoPhillips’s stock price fall by ~13% in eight sessions.

A similar contrarian reaction was observed after the company’s 2Q15 and 1Q15 earnings, when its stock price fell by ~7% and ~4% in five sessions and eight sessions, respectively, even after beating consensus earnings estimates by $0.03 per share and $0.04 per share, respectively.

In 4Q15, excluding one-time items, COP reported EPS of -$0.90, $0.25 worse than analysts’ consensus estimated EPS of -$0.65.

COP reported its 4Q15 earnings before the Market opened on February 4, 2016. Following its earnings release, worse-than-expected earnings saw COP’s stock price fall by ~15% in just two sessions.


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