uploads/2016/07/COP-2Q16-Pre-Annotations-1.jpg

ConocoPhillips’s Stock Price Gains as Market Cap Losses Slow

By

Updated

ConocoPhillips’s stock price action

After losing ~62% of its market capitalization from July 2014 to February 2016, ConocoPhillips (COP) is finally seeing signs of a new uptrend in its stock price.

In April 2016, ConocoPhillips’s stock crossed its 200-day moving average for the first time in seventeen months. Currently, it’s consolidating around its 200-day moving average. Since its February 2016 bottom, ConocoPhillips’s stock price has risen by ~39%.

Article continues below advertisement

ConocoPhillips’s relative performance

Recently, COP has shown relative weakness compared to other crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) producers. In the last three months, ConocoPhillips’ stock price has fallen by ~2%. Compare these returns to those of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), which has risen by ~5% during the same period.

ConocoPhillips’s year-to-date performance

In 2016, COP has been underperforming bigger upstream companies from the S&P 500 (SPY). In 2016, COP has fallen by ~7%, whereas bigger oil and gas producers Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and EOG Resources (EOG) have risen by ~17%, ~25%, and ~20%, respectively.

ConocoPhillips’s stock price performance after its past earnings

ConocoPhillips reported its 1Q16 earnings before the Market opened on April 28, 2016. In 1Q16, excluding one-time items, ConocoPhillips reported earnings per share (or EPS) of -$0.95, $0.09 better than analysts’ consensus estimated EPS of -$1.04. Following its 1Q16 earnings release, better-than-expected earnings saw ConocoPhillips’s stock price fall by ~13% in eight sessions.

A similar contrarian reaction was observed after the company’s 2Q15 and 1Q15 earnings, when its stock price fell by ~7% and ~4% in five sessions and eight sessions, respectively, even after beating consensus earnings estimates by $0.03 per share and $0.04 per share, respectively.

In 4Q15, excluding one-time items, COP reported EPS of -$0.90, $0.25 worse than analysts’ consensus estimated EPS of -$0.65.

COP reported its 4Q15 earnings before the Market opened on February 4, 2016. Following its earnings release, worse-than-expected earnings saw COP’s stock price fall by ~15% in just two sessions.

Advertisement

More From Market Realist