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Analyzing Consol Energy’s Stock Price ahead of Its 2Q16 Earnings

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Consol Energy’s stock price action

After losing ~91% of its market capitalization from June 2014 to January 2016, Consol Energy’s (CNX) stock price is finally showing signs of a new uptrend. In February 2016, as seen in the below chart, Consol Energy’s stock price touched a higher high for the first time in almost two years. Since its January 2016 bottom, Consol Energy’s stock price is up by a whopping ~275%.

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Consol Energy’s relative performance

Recently, CNX has shown excellent relative strength when compared with other natural gas producers. In the last three months, Consol Energy’s stock price has increased by ~26%.

Compare this with the ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index ETF (FCG), which is up by ~13% during the same period.

Consol Energy’s year-to-date performance

For 2016, Consol Energy (CNX) is outperforming larger upstream companies from the S&P 500 (SPY).

In 2016, CNX is up by ~115%. Larger oil and gas producers Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and EOG Resources (EOG) are up by ~15%, ~22%, and ~18%, respectively.

Consol Energy’s stock price performance after past earnings

Consol Energy reported its 1Q16 earnings before the Market opened on April 26, 2016. In 1Q16, excluding the one-time items, Consol Energy (CNX) reported a loss of $0.07 per share, $0.02 better than the consensus for a loss of $0.09 per share.

Following the earnings release, better-than-expected earnings saw Consol Energy’s stock price increase by ~20% in the two sessions.

CNX reported its 4Q15 earnings, before the market open, on January 29, 2016. In 4Q15, excluding the one-time items, CNX reported a loss of $0.11 per share, $0.02 worse than the consensus for a loss of $0.09 per share.

Following the earnings release, in a contrarian reaction, worse-than-expected earnings saw Consol Energy’s stock price increase by ~35% in just six sessions.

In 3Q15, CNX reported a loss of $0.28 per share, $0.25 worse than the consensus for a loss of $0.03 per share. Following the earnings release, worse-than-expected earnings saw Consol Energy’s stock price fall by ~25% in just four sessions.

A downward reaction was also observed after the company’s 2Q15 earnings, when CNX’s stock price fell by ~32% in about four weeks after missing the consensus earnings estimates by $0.37 per share.

Contrary to the above two occasions, CNX’s 1Q15 and 4Q14 post-earnings reactions were decidedly positive, mainly due to the better-than-expected earnings results.

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