Why Analysts Expect Harley-Davidson’s Revenue to Fall in 2Q16



Harley-Davidson’s revenue

In 1Q16, Harley-Davidson’s (HOG) revenue stood at ~$1.8 billion, 4.6% higher than the ~$1.7 billion it posted in 1Q15. This revenue result was higher than analysts’ estimate of $1.5 billion. The primary driver behind this positive revenue growth was a 4.5% YoY (year-over-year) rise in sales in international markets during 1Q16.

Now, let’s find out what analysts expect for Harley-Davidson’s revenues in 2Q16 and beyond.

Article continues below advertisement

Analysts’ estimates

Analysts are expecting Harley-Davidson’s revenue to be $1.6 billion in 2Q16. That’s 10.6% lower than its revenue of $1.8 billion in 2Q15.

Likewise, analysts estimate that the company’s 2016 revenue will fall to $5.4 billion, ~9.9% lower than it was in 2015.

Factors affecting revenue

The United States is the most important market for Harley-Davidson motorcycles. In 2015, the US market accounted for 71% of the company’s total automotive revenue. This also reflects Harley-Davidson’s high dependence on its home market.

However, in 1Q16, the company reported a marginal fall in its US market sales. HOG sold 35,326 motorcycles in the US market in 1Q16 compared to 35,488 motorcycles in 1Q15. This reflects a YoY fall of 0.5%.

Analysts’ expectations that Harley’s motorcycle sales will fall further could be one reason analysts expect its revenue to fall in 2Q16 and going forward.

Among mainstream automakers (IYK), General Motors (GM), Ford Motor Company (F), and Toyota Motor (TM) also make the majority of their revenues from the US market.

Continue to the next part to know what analysts are estimating for Harley-Davidson’s margins in 2Q16.


More From Market Realist