uploads///How Has the Correlation Between Crude Oil and the Dollar Index Evolved

What’s the Correlation between Crude Oil and the US Dollar Index?

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Jun. 1 2016, Published 12:04 p.m. ET

Crude oil and the US Dollar Index over the last six trading sessions

Between May 24 and May 31, crude oil gained about 0.98% despite the fact that the US Dollar Index also rallied around 0.33%. The factors that impacted crude oil futures have already been discussed previously in this series. The crude oil movement in the current scenario was fueled more by the mainstream news than the US Dollar Index’s moves.

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Correlation of crude oil and the US Dollar Index since 2007

Between September 2007 and April 2013, the crude oil (USO) and US Dollar Index (UUP) one-month correlation was positive in only a few instances. The correlation coefficient was largely negative for these five and a half years. After the subprime crisis, crude oil futures extended their gains and made highs of $113.93 and $109.77 in April 2011 and February 2012, respectively.

Crude oil’s negative correlation with the US Dollar Index between September 2007 and April 2013 clearly implies that crude oil had an inverse relationship with the US Dollar Index. However, since April 2013 to date, the one-month correlation has been more bidirectional. In the last three years, the one-month correlation fluctuated between -64% and 43%. This fluctuation could indicate that fundamental drivers like Saudi Arabia’s decision not to cut production, US shale oil producers’ cost and production dynamics, US inventory data, and other fundamental news had a greater impact on crude oil compared to the dollar.

Oil-weighted stocks and ETFs

The above analysis is important for oil-weighted stocks such as Abraxas Petroleum (AXAS), Triangle Petroleum (TPLM), and Denbury Resources (DNR). The Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X ETF (ERY), the First Trust Energy AlphaDEX ETF (FXN), the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), and the United States Oil Fund (USO) are also impacted by the correlation of crude oil with the US Dollar Index.

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