uploads///Natural Gas Rig Count Fell To Five Year Low

Natural Gas Rig Count Fell: Does It Indicate Lower Production?

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Apr. 28 2016, Updated 2:07 p.m. ET

Natural gas rig count

According to Baker Hughes’ data release for the week ending on April 22, 2016, the natural gas rig count fell to 88—compared to 225 a year ago.

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Fewer natural gas rigs 

Fewer natural gas rigs don’t necessarily indicate a rapid fall in natural gas production. Rigs have been gaining operational efficiency. This could lead to a higher rate of production for natural gas, even with fewer rigs in operation. The fall in crude oil rig counts could support natural gas prices. Natural gas is an associated product of crude oil (USO) extraction. So, the recent fall in crude oil rigs in the US (SPY) is a positive indication for natural gas.

Inventory data

The inventory for the week ending on April 15, 2016, was 48.5% higher than its five-year average. The inventory level for the same period was 55% higher than last year. The inventory data for the week ending on April 22, 2016, is expected to release on April 28, 2016.

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Important technical levels for natural gas

The price level of $2.05 is an immediate resistance level for natural gas futures. This is the 50% retracement of natural gas futures from the high of $2.49 on January 8 and the low of $1.61 on March 4. At the 38.2% retracement level, $1.95 is the immediate support level for natural gas futures. On April 27, 2016, natural gas futures closed at $2.0.

Natural gas–weighted stock

The inventory data expected to be released on April 28 could impact natural gas–weighted stock such as EXCO Resources (XCO), Ultra Petroleum (UPL), and Antero Resources (AR).

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