18 Mar

Fed Holds Back on Rate Hike in March

WRITTEN BY Rebecca Keats

Fed keeps policy rate unchanged

In a two-day meeting that concluded on March 16, 2016, the Federal Reserve decided to keep policy rates unchanged at 0.25%–0.5%. This came in the wake of the global sell-off triggered by slower global growth and accentuated by plunging oil prices. Fed chair Janet Yellen released a relatively dovish statement and lowered the Fed’s forecasts for further interest rate hikes through 2018.

The Fed also lowered the expected pace of rate hikes and said it expects two hikes in 2016. That’s lower than the four hikes anticipated earlier. Fed officials forecast the federal funds rate at 0.88% for the end of 2016, 1.9% for the end of 2017, and 3% for the end of 2018. Those are lower than the December forecasts.

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Federal Funds Rate (Daily, Seven Day)","metric":null,"source":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)","observation_start":-489265200,"chart_type":"line"}]

Economic forecasts were cut

The Fed also cut GDP (gross domestic product) growth forecasts for 2016 to 2.2%. Unemployment forecasts were also lowered to 4.7% for 2016 and 4.5% for 2018. Fed officials see headline inflation at 1.2% by the end of 2016, lower than the forecast of 1.6% in December.

At a press conference held after the meeting, Yellen said the Fed is currently working with mixed signals from the economy. While the job market has strengthened, wage growth is still weak and economic growth isn’t stable. The Fed’s latest commentary on risks suggests that officials will wait for a better picture on the economic outlook before interest rates start moving again.

This means the Fed is unlikely to hike rates in April and is more likely to raise rates at its June meeting. The Fed also mentioned that it’s not considering negative interest rates.

Markets gained following the announcement. The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) rose 1.2% on March 17, 2016, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose 0.7%. Major banks such as Wells Fargo (WFC), JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C) reacted positively to this decision.

Latest articles

Since my last article about Nvidia (NVDA), the stock has risen from $196.86 to $208.57. I expect a further rise after today's earnings results.

TJX Companies (TJX) is scheduled to announce its fiscal 2020 third-quarter earnings results on November 19. Its third quarter ended on November 2.

AT&T stock is currently trending downward in today’s trading session. It’s down about 1% as of 11:52 AM ET. The stock fell after HSBC downgraded its rating.

Canopy Growth reported its second-quarter earnings results today. It's already down 16.07% on the day and is trading at 20.52 Canadian dollars on the TSE.

The EIA released its inventory report at 10:30 AM ET. WTI crude oil prices rose around 0.4% at 11:31 AM ET from their last closing level.

Alibaba stock has seen turbulence throughout the year, as the US and China have often been at odds. It fell around 2.4% on November 13.