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What Is Noble Energy’s 4Q15 Production Guidance?

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Noble Energy’s production guidance

For 4Q15, Noble Energy (NBL) expects total production in the range of 405–415 Mboe (thousand barrels of oil equivalent) per day. The midpoint of its 4Q15 production guidance is 410 Mboe per day, ~30% higher compared to 4Q14.

Sequentially, NBL’s 4Q15 production guidance is higher by ~8% compared to 3Q15.

NBL is expecting 4Q15 production growth to come mainly from its Eagle Ford Shale, DJ Basin, Marcellus Shale, and Israel assets.

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Other upstream players

Other upstream companies such as Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and EQT (EQT) have reported ~10% and ~13% year-over-year (or YoY) rises in their 4Q15 total productions, respectively. Murphy Oil (MUR) reported a ~23% YoY fall in its 4Q15 total production.

The SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) generally invests at least 80% of its total assets in oil and gas exploration companies.

NBL’s capex guidance

For 4Q15, NBL expects total capital expenditure (or capex) in the range of $575–$675 million. In 3Q15, NBL lowered its 2015 capex guidance to slightly below $3 billion, a reduction of ~$100 million from its original estimates. Thus, NBL’s total capex in 2015 will be ~39% lower than its capex of ~$4.9 billion in 2014.

In a press release on December 9, 2015, NBL’s executive vice president of its Operations segment, Gary Willingham, said, “The Company’s 2015 capital budget remains unchanged and fourth quarter capital will be the lowest quarterly spend of the year.  We’ve positioned the company to operate within cash flow while still being able to deliver modest pro-forma annual volume growth in 2016.”

NBL’s cost guidance

For 4Q15, NBL expects LOE (lease operating expense) in the range of $4.2–$4.4 per boe (barrel of oil equivalent). In 3Q15, NBL’s LOE was $3.81 per boe.

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