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Integrated Oil and Gas: Moving Averages and Analysts’ Estimates

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Moving averages

After the last rate hike in December 2015, ExxonMobil (XOM) was trading flat compared to the downside movement in upstream and midstream companies. On the other hand, XOM’s price performance is directly correlated to crude oil prices. The stock started to fall after the geopolitical tension heightened between Iran and Saudi Arabia. XOM is close to the psychological support level of $70.

As of the closing on February 5, 2016, US-based (SPY) integrated oil and gas companies ExxonMobil, Chevron (CVX), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are trading at an average of 3% below their respective 100-day moving averages. ExxonMobil is 2.2% above its 100-day moving average. Chevron and Occidental Petroleum are trading 4.8% and 5.7%, respectively, below their moving averages. The United States Oil Fund (USO) is trading 28.8% below its 100-day moving average.

On average, these three integrated oil and gas companies are trading 2.5% above their respective 20-day moving averages. ExxonMobil is trading 5% above its 20-day moving average. Chevron and Occidental Petroleum are trading 1.5% below and 2.7% above their 20-day moving averages, respectively.

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Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimates

Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimates suggest an 8.7% upside for these three integrated energy companies. Over the next 12 months, ExxonMobil and Chevron could see rises of 2% and 14%, respectively, and Occidental Petroleum could see a 12% rise. The table above shows the moving averages and analysts’ estimates for these integrated oil and gas companies.

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