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Integrated Oil and Gas Companies’ Moving Averages

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Moving averages

Integrated oil and gas companies including ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are trading ~0.5% below their respective moving averages on an average basis. ExxonMobil and Chevron traded at par to their respective 100-day moving averages. In contrast, Occidental Petroleum traded ~1% below its 100-day moving average. However, ExxonMobil traded 2% above its 20-day moving average. Chevron traded 3% above its 20-day moving average. The United States Oil (USO) traded 24% below its 100-day moving average.

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Chevron announced its 4Q15 results as of January 29, 2016. Chevron reported its first quarterly loss since 2002. The stock fell to $83.20 on an intraday basis but closed at $86.47 up by 0.64%. The efficient market hypothesis explains this type of behavior in the financial market. The market absorbs all of the available information into the price. The fall in the crude oil price was responsible for its quarterly loss. So, the stock fell with crude. Market participants are expecting an OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and a non-OPEC deal soon. It could lead to a production cut and crude might rise. The prices are already adjusted to the current earnings. Any rise in crude could drive its earnings and stock. The stock price is also sensitive to the company’s earnings guidance.

Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimates

Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimates suggest a 6.7% upside for these three US (SPY)-based integrated energy companies. Over the next 12 months, ExxonMobil and Chevron could see rises of 3.1% and 10.5%, respectively. Occidental Petroleum could see a 6.3% rise. However, after the quarterly results, the consensus estimate for Chevron is at $96 as of January 29—compared to $95 as of January $28.

The above table shows the moving averages and analysts’ estimates for these integrated oil and gas companies.

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