Price movement of Boston Beer
Boston Beer Company (SAM) fell by 2.2% to close at $181.02 per share at the end of the third week of February 2016. The price movement on a weekly, monthly, and year-to-date (or YTD) basis is 0.79%, 10.6%, and -10.4%, respectively.
At times, the stock has broken the support of all moving day averages. Currently, SAM is trading 2.3% above its 20-day moving average, 3.8% below its 50-day moving average, and 17.7% below its 200-day moving average.
The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) invests 0.29% of its holdings in Boston Beer. The ETF tracks a market-cap-weighted index of US small-cap growth stocks. The index selects from stocks ranked 1,001 to 3,000 by market cap based on two growth factors.
The Vanguard S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF (IVOG) invests 0.26% of its holdings in Boston Beer. The ETF tracks a market-cap-weighted index of growth companies from the S&P 400. The YTD price movement of IVOG is -7.8% as of February 18, 2016.
The market caps of Boston Beer’s competitors are as follows:
Performance of Boston Beer in 4Q15 and fiscal 2015
Boston Beer reported 4Q15 net revenue of $215.1 million, a fall of 1.2% compared to net revenue of $217.8 million in 4Q14. It sold 0.96 million barrels in 4Q15 compared to 0.98 million in 4Q14.
Its net income and EPS (earnings per share) fell to $16.1 million and $1.21, respectively, in 4Q15 compared to $19.1 million and $1.40, respectively, in 4Q14.
The year-to-date depletions through the six weeks ended February 6, 2016, fell by 3% compared to the prior-year period.
Fiscal 2015 results
In fiscal 2015, SAM reported net revenue of $959.9 million, a rise of 6.3% YoY (year-over-year). It sold 4.3 million barrels in fiscal 2015, a rise of 3.7% YoY. Its net income and EPS rose to $98.4 million and $7.25, respectively, in fiscal 2015 compared to $90.7 million and $6.69, respectively, in fiscal 2014.
Meanwhile, its cash and cash equivalents and inventories rose by 23.3% and 10.1%, respectively, in fiscal 2015. Its current ratio and debt-to-equity ratio rose to 2.0 and 0.40, respectively, in fiscal 2015, compared to 1.9 and 0.39, respectively, in fiscal 2014.
The PE (price-to-earnings) and PBV (price-to-book value) ratios of Boston Beer are 24.8x and 5.1x, respectively, as of February 19, 2016.
The company has made the following projections for fiscal 2016:
- EPS in the range of $7.60 to $8.00
- depletions and shipment percentage growth in the mid-single digits
- national price increases in the range of 1% to 2%
- gross margin in the range of 52% to 54%
- effective tax rate of ~37%
- capital spending in the range of $60 million to $80 million