US-based (SPY) integrated oil and gas companies ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) were trading at an average of 0.6% below their respective 100-day moving averages. As of February 16, 2016, ExxonMobil was trading nearly 3.2% above its 100-day moving average. Chevron and Occidental Petroleum were trading 3% and 2% below their respective moving averages. As of February 12, these integrated oil and gas companies were 1% below their 100-day moving averages.
The United States Oil Fund (USO) is trading 34% below its 100-day moving average. However, as of February 12, it was 31% below its 100-day moving average. Investors must understand that the production freeze by Saudi Arabia and Russia (ERUS) is already discounted in the price. Any additional upside based on the news may not be possible.
On average, these three integrated oil and gas companies—ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum—are trading 3.5% above their respective 20-day moving averages. ExxonMobil is trading 4.6% above its 20-day moving average. Chevron and Occidental Petroleum are trading at par to their respective 20-day moving averages.
Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimates
Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimates suggest a 6% upside for these three integrated energy companies. Over the next 12 months, Occidental Petroleum and Chevron could see rises of 8% and 11.2%, respectively. The above chart shows the moving averages and analysts’ estimates for these integrated oil and gas companies.
Next, we’ll continue our moving average analysis. We’ll discuss the energy scene in China.