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Reading the Moving Averages and Analyst Estimates of Upstream Energy Companies

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Jan. 27 2016, Updated 3:05 p.m. ET

Moving averages show strong resistance as of January 26

The 100-day moving averages of major upstream companies’ stock have shown strong resistance as of January 26. Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), for example, managed to trade above its 100-day moving average before December 15, 2015. Now it’s trading 17.3% below its 100-day moving average. PXD’s 52-week high lies around $180, and the stock currently trades at $113.54 (as of January 26). The stock is currently trading 37% below its 52-week high. The price range of $110 is a psychological support for PXD since August 2015.

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The 100-day moving averages of EQT, COG, and XOP

Meanwhile, EQT Corporation (EQT) and Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG) are trading 10% and 9%, respectively, below their 100-day moving averages.

With the exception of EQT and COG, upstream companies are trading well below their 20-day moving averages. Notably, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) is trading 23.15% below its 100-day moving average.

Wall Street analyst consensus estimates

The above table shows several upstream companies’ moving averages and forward target prices. Wall Street analyst consensus estimates suggest a 50.4% upside for these upstream companies, compared to the 39% upside estimates for large-cap refineries. Over the next 12 months, EQT and Cabot Oil & Gas could rise by as much as 21% and 15%, respectively, from current levels.

The Wall Street analyst estimates for three other major upstream companies over the next 12 months are as follows:

  • ConocoPhillips (COP) could see a 48% rise.
  • EOG Resources (EOG) could rise by 26%.
  • Apache Corporation (APA) could see an 87% rise.

In the next part of this series (Part 9), we’ll discuss analyst estimates for large-cap oil refining companies.

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