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Downstream Moving Averages and Wall Street Estimates

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Jan. 21 2016, Updated 10:06 a.m. ET

Moving averages for downstream companies

Large capped downstream companies are trading 10% below their 100-day moving averages. Phillips 66 (PSX) and Tesoro Corporation (TSO) are trading 5% and 7% below their respective 100-day moving averages as of January 14, 2016. Only Valero (VLO) and PBF Energy (PBF) are trading above their respective 100-day moving averages. VLO and PBF trade 2% and 4.3%, respectively, above the 100-day moving averages.

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Meanwhile, Phillips 66 (PSX) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) were trading 5% and 13%, respectively, below their 100-day moving averages as of January 14. The other refining companies, Delek US Holdings (DK) and Alon USA Energy (ALJ), were trading 26% and 24%, respectively, below their 100-day moving averages.

Wall Street analyst consensus estimates

Wall Street consensus analyst estimates suggest that the US (SPY) based ten major large-cap refiners might return 34% on average over the next 12 months. The frontline refineries Phillips 66, Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum, and Tesoro could rise by 23%, 21%, 52%, and 29%, respectively, from their current levels.

By comparison, Delek, Alon, and CVR Refining could rise by 79%, 40%, and 22%, respectively, from their current levels. In terms of current and forward price-to-earnings ratios, Delek, CVR Refining, and HollyFrontier are relatively cheaper than the other downstream companies. The table above shows the moving averages and Wall Street analyst estimates for large-capped refiners.

In the next part of this series, we’ll analyze the moving averages of midstream companies.

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