uploads///CNX Pre Annotated

Consol Energy’s Stock Price in a Downtrend ahead of 4Q15 Results


Jan. 25 2016, Updated 1:33 p.m. ET

Consol Energy’s stock price in a steep downtrend

Falling natural gas and coal prices over the last one year are dragging the entire upstream sector in a downtrend. As we can see in the chart below, Consol Energy’s (CNX) stock price is in a steep downtrend where it’s making a clear pattern of both lower highs and lows.

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CNX’s stock price before 4Q15 results

Since November 2015, CNX’s stock price was consolidating in a price band of ~$9.00 to ~$6.30. But two weeks back, CNX’s stock price broke this consolidation range to the downside.

In the first three weeks of 2016, CNX’s stock price fell by ~23%.

For 2015, CNX fell ~77%, whereas the S&P 500 TF (SPY) was almost flat during the same period. You can compare this with the SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) as it fell ~36% in 2015. Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and EOG Resources (EOG) fell ~13%, ~16%, and ~23%, respectively.

CNX’s stock price performance after past earnings

CNX reported its 3Q15 earnings—before the market opened—on October 27, 2015. In 3Q15, excluding one-time items, CNX reported a fall of $0.28 per share, or $0.25 lower than the consensus for a fall of $0.03 per share. Following the earnings release, these worse-than-expected earnings saw CNX’s stock price plunge by ~25% in just four sessions.

A downward reaction was observed after the 2Q15 earnings as well, when CNX’s stock price fell by ~32% in about four weeks after missing the consensus earning estimates by $0.37 per share.

Contrary to above two occasions, CNX’s 1Q15 and 4Q14 post-earnings reactions were decidedly positive. This was mainly due to the better-than-expected earnings results.


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