Alcoa Has Fallen 37% Since the Beginning of 2015


Jan. 14 2016, Updated 6:04 p.m. ET

Alcoa fell 37% in 2015

Alcoa (AA), one of the largest aluminum producers in the world, has fallen 37% since the beginning of 2015. The bearishness in aluminum pulled Alcoa’s prices down to multiyear lows.

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Alcoa fell until end of August and then consolidated

As you can see in the above graph, in most of 2015, Alcoa was below the 200-day moving average. Since March 20, 2015, Alcoa’s equity was trading below the 200-day moving average, which is a bearish signal. Except for the period until March 20, the higher moving averages were above the lower moving averages. The 200-day, 100-day, and 50-day moving averages were all trending downward. If the higher moving averages are above the lower moving averages and they’re all aligned downward, that’s bearish. Alcoa fell until the end of August and then consolidated between $10 and $8 for most of the remaining trading period.

Alcoa fell 41.7% from its peak in 2015

The highest day’s close for Alcoa in 2015 was $17.07 on February 5. Since the peak in February, Alcoa has fallen 41.7%. The lowest day’s close for Alcoa in 2015 was $7.82. Alcoa is currently trading at 27.4% above that. The prominent price regions in 2015 were $16, $14, $10, and $8. They’re expected to act as important support and resistance zones in 2016. As you can see in the graph, Alcoa shares a strong correlation with aluminum prices. Since the beginning of 2015, aluminum fell 17.5%. Alcoa fell 71%.

Other base metal miners also lost a significant portion of their values in 2015. Vale SA (VALE), Glencore (GLNCY), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Rio Tinto (RIO) fell 60%, 72%, 41.4%, and 37%, respectively. Base metal ETFs were also on a downtrend for most of 2015. The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) fell 51% during the year.


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