In this part of this series, we’ll look at the company’s cash distribution trends over the past three years, as well as analysts’ consensus for cash distribution for 2015 and 2016.
For the full year 2015, analysts are expecting the company to distribute $1.12 per share. So far this year, CVR Partners has already distributed $0.84 per share, which means that analysts estimate that the company will distribute $0.28 per share in 4Q15.
Missing guidance and estimates
If we look at the chart above, analysts’ estimates have missed the company’s actual results by a large margin. However, if we take a look at the company’s guidance, this isn’t surprising. For example, in 2012, management gave a guidance in the range of $1.70 to $1.87 per share, and in 2013 this range was $1.85 to $2 per share. In 2012, the company distributed $2.21 per share, and in 2013, the company distributed $1.75 per share. In both cases the actual distribution was out of management’s guided ranges.
In the most recent quarter, the plant was down for an anticipated 18 days and an unanticipated 18 days. The management stated that “we typically have several days of downtime every quarter unplanned.” Downtime affects production and results in lower shipments. This was the primary reason why CVR Partners was in the red in 3Q15.
You may access agricultural fertilizer companies through the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO). CF Industries Holdings (CF), The Mosaic Company (MOS), and PotashCorp (POT) form 9.3% of MOO’s total portfolio.