What Do the Moving Averages and Analysts’ Estimate Mean?



Moving averages

As of December 10, 2015, the 100-day moving averages of many upstream companies’ stocks showed strong resistance. For example, only Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) managed to trade above the 100-day moving average. It rose by 11%.

EQT (EQT) and Cabot Oil and Gas (COG) were trading 24% and 22% below their 100-day moving averages as of December 10. Upstream companies were trading well below their 20-day moving averages, except for Pioneer Natural Resources. It was trading 1.2% above its respective 20-day moving average as of December 10.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) was trading 6% below its 100-day and 20-day moving averages, respectively.

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Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimate

Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimate suggests a 40% upside for these upstream companies—compared to a 21% upside for large-cap refineries. Over the next 12 months, companies like EQT and Cabot Oil and Gas could see rises of 62% and 58%, respectively, from the levels as of December 10. Below is a rundown of four other upstream companies and Wall Street analysts’ estimate for each company over the next 12 months:

  • ConocoPhillips (COP) could see a 25% rise.
  • EOG Resources (EOG) could see a 19% rise.
  • Apache (APA) could see a 20% rise.

Interestingly, the forward PE (price-to-earnings) ratio for the next year suggests that ConocoPhillips is comparatively cheaper than other upstream companies. The above graph shows these upstream companies’ moving averages and forward target prices.


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