Could Fewer Exports Pressure Soybean Prices?


Nov. 18 2015, Updated 7:09 a.m. ET

Trend channel

Soybean futures prices for November expiry were trading above the support level of $3.65 per bushel on November 13, 2015. However, the weaker export data pushed the soybean prices below the support level of $3.60 at the close of trade due to fund and technical selling. The open interest fell by 90.5% because it was the last trading day for the November contracts. There was also a meager fall in the January expiry by 0.25% on November 13, 2015. It was the tenth consecutive trading day that the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages were lower than the closing prices for the day. It indicates the falling price movement due oversupplied conditions in the next week. It suggests that the trend for the soybean futures January contracts might continue the downward pattern.

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Price drivers

The weaker-than-average pace of soybean export sales pushed the soybean futures prices down. It was also hurt by technical and fund selling on November 13. The US Dollar Index rose by 0.24% on November 13, 2015. This could have caused soybean prices to impact the US soybean exports.

NOPA (National Oilseed Processors Association) anticipated a rise in the October 2015 crushing data. This suggests pulling pressure on the soybean prices due to higher demand. The hot and dry weather in Brazil would support the soybean futures prices. Data showed the completion of the soybean planting in Argentina being 20% weaker than usual. This also supported the soybean prices on November 13.

Ticker discussion

The shares of Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), CVR Partners (UAN), and Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) rose after falling for three, three, and two days. They rose by 1.1%, 0.59%, and 0.16%, respectively, on November 13, 2015. For the second consecutive day, Chemical & Mining Co. of Chile (SQM) rose by 5.6% on November 13, 2015. ETFs like the Material Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) also rose by 1.3%. It continued the volatile price movement on November 13, 2015.


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