API crude oil inventory report
On October 6, 2015, the API (American Petroleum Institute) will publish the weekly crude oil inventory report. It reported that crude oil stocks fell by 1.2 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending October 2, 2015. In contrast, crude oil stocks rose by 4.6 MMbbls for the week ending September 25, 2015. The API data added that crude oil stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 0.1 MMbbls for the same period. Cushing is the largest crude oil storage hub in the US.
EIA’s crude oil inventory estimates and impact
The API’s data are followed by the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) weekly petroleum status report. The EIA is scheduled to release its oil inventory report on October 7, 2015. Last week, the US commercial crude inventory rose by 4 MMbbls to 457.9 MMbbls for the week ending September 25, 2015. Likewise, the gasoline stockpile rose by 3.3 MMbbls for the same period. Distillates stocks fell by 0.27 MMbbls.
Surveys from Reuters and Platts suggest that US commercial crude oil stocks could rise by 1.8 MMbbls for the week ending October 2, 2015. Likewise, the gasoline stockpile is estimated to rise by 0.5 MMbbls for the same period. In contrast, distillates stocks are estimated to fall by 0.8 MMbbls.
The rising crude oil and gasoline stocks could weigh on crude oil prices. The current crude oil stocks are 30% more than the levels of 356 MMbbls in 2014. They’re also near the 80-period high during this time of the year. The record inventory will weigh on crude oil prices.
In contrast, crude oil prices rose 9% in the last four days. The recent surge in oil prices saw oil producers like Hess (HES), Marathon Oil (MRO), and Murphy Oil (MUR) rise more than 3% in yesterday’s trade. Combined, they account for 3.34% of the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). These stocks’ crude oil production mix is more than 49% of their total production.