The open interest remains high. This suggests that investors are preparing for a rally in prices after the Fed’s decision. A postponed decision could lift the bullions. We saw this in September. Over the past five weeks, government data indicate that long positions rose while short positions fell.
While the Fed Chair Janet Yellen was looking forward to the rate hike this year, most traders priced the chances of a liftoff at 35% by December. They gave an even lower chance of 4% at the two-day meeting this week. Holdings in ETFs backed by gold also witnessed a rise in October. It’s the biggest rise since February.
Mining ETFs like the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) and the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) rose 5.4% and 13.7%, respectively, on a 30-day trailing basis. Mining companies that saw a rise in the past month include Gold Fields (GFI), Silver Wheaton (SLW), and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM). These three companies account for 13.6% of the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).