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Is Gold Recovering from the July Rout?


Oct. 23 2015, Published 11:57 a.m. ET

Gold and the S&P GSCI

Gold has climbed almost 8% since its low in the month of July. The surge in price following the steep decline has left gold prices almost flat for 2015. Gold has lost 1.5% on a YTD (year-to-date) basis.

Other precious metals futures such as platinum and palladium have seen losses of 16.8% and 14.1%, respectively, on COMEX, a commodity division of the New York Merchantile Exchange. Silver alone has seen positive returns, although marginal, making it the best performing precious metal on a year-to-date basis. It increased 0.90%.

If we compare gold price movements to the S&P GSCI, we see buoyant comparative prices of gold. The S&P GSCI is an index comprised of 24 commodities, including gold, silver, Brent crude, corn, wheat, and gasoline. Gold is ranked fourth among the 24 commodities in the index. Silver is ranked third. Below is a chart that shows the comparative price study of gold and the S&P GSCI.

Mining equity

Gold mining stocks are still facing tough times, although they’ve recovered from previous losses. Most equities have substantially rebounded from their July lows, but a few are still showing lagging performances.

Precious metal mining equities Barrick Gold (ABX), Silver Wheaton (SLW), and Alamos Gold (AGI) are trading below their 100-day moving average prices. These companies have year-to-date losses of 43.6%, 29.7%, and 47.9%, respectively. Together, they comprise 12.4% of the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

GDX saw a tremendous plunge during the commodities price carnage in July. It’s had a 21.6% loss for the year. But it has gained a whopping 21.5% on a trailing 30-day basis. Other bullion-backed ETFs such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) have also recovered from their previous losses, leaving 1.6% and 1.5% losses, respectively, for the year.

The net long speculative investment in COMEX has also seen a rise. In July, August, and early September, the net speculative long position created was associated with the short covering of speculative positions. The later part of September, though, saw new gold long speculative positions.

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