Increase in both US and international GMV
eBay (EBAY) is gearing up for the release of its 3Q15 earnings results on October 21. Analysts expect the online auction giant to report an increase in its gross merchandise volume (or GMV) for both US and international markets.
As per consensus analyst estimates, eBay’s gross merchandise volume in the United States will grow up to 3.3% year-over-year in 3Q15. The international GMV that excludes foreign exchange movement is expected to increase by 6% year-over-year.
eBay Marketplaces GMV
eBay Marketplaces’ GMV fell 2% year-over-year in 2Q15. The dollar’s continued strength significantly influenced the results. However, eBay’s total GMV rose 6% on an FX-neutral basis—a point higher from the prior quarter. The company’s GMV for its Marketplaces business grew 2% in the United States, while the international GMV fell 5%.
Although eBay’s overall revenue growth of 7% is far less than Amazon’s (AMZN) growth of 20% in the last quarter, it’s still positioned better than brick-and-mortar players like Walmart (WMT) and Best Buy (BBY). This is because the e-commerce and m-commerce markets are expected to eat away share from traditional retailers.
According to a report from eMarketer and as the graph above shows, US e-commerce sales as a percentage of total retail sales will continue to rise from 6.40% in 2014 to 8.90% in 2018. In contrast, m-commerce sales as a percentage of total retail sales will rise from 1.20% in 2014 to 2.40% by 2018.
For diversified exposure to eBay, investors can consider ETFs like the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY). This ETF invests in the 500 largest US companies. The technology sector accounts for 18% of SPY’s portfolio.