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Will the EIA’s Report Follow the API’s Crude Oil Stockpile Data?

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API’s crude oil stockpile data  

The API (American Petroleum Institute) released its weekly crude oil inventory report on Tuesday at 4:30 PM EST on September 29, 2015. The US commercial crude oil stocks rose by 4.6 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending September 25, 2015. In contrast, crude oil stocks fell by 3.7 MMbbls for the week ending September 18, 2015. The API also added that the US gasoline inventory rose by 3.3 MMbbls for the week ending September 25, 2015. Likewise, distillate stocks rose by 0.2 MMbbls for the same period.

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EIA crude oil stockpile and estimates 

The API data is the precursor to the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) weekly petroleum status report. The EIA is scheduled to release the oil stocks report on September 30, 2015. Last week, the EIA reported that crude oil stocks fell by 1.9 MMbbls to 454 MMbbls for the week ending September 18, 2015. Similarly, the distillates inventory fell by 2 MMbbls for the same period. In contrast, the gasoline stocks rose by 1.4 MMbbls for the same period.

Reuters and Wall Street Journal surveys estimate that the US commercial crude oil stocks could rise by 0.1 MMbbls and 0.3 MMbbls for the week ending September 25, 2015. The inventories might have risen due to the fall in refinery demand. The demand fell due to seasonal refinery maintenance. The consensus of the rising crude oil stocks might put pressure on crude oil prices.

US distillates stocks are estimated to fall by 0.471 MMbbls for the week ending September 25, 2015. Likewise, gasoline stocks are estimated to fall by 0.040 MMbbls for the same period. The falling refined products inventory suggests retail demand. The consensus of falling refined products could support crude oil prices.

The roller coaster ride of crude oil prices impacts oil and gas producers like Murphy Oil (MUR), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and Apache (APA). Combined, they account for 5.95% of the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). These stocks’ crude oil production mix is more than 49% of their total production. Energy ETFs like the XLE and the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) are also impacted by the volatility in crude oil prices.

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