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Why Amazon Could Experience a Great Holiday Season This Year

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Aug. 18 2020, Updated 9:30 a.m. ET

US retail sales growth to be the highest this year since 2011

All trends indicate that this year’s holiday season will be great for not only online retailers like Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY) but also traditional brick-and-mortar players such as Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT).

According to a report from eMarketer, during the holiday season of November and December this year, US retail sales will grow at a year-over-year (or YoY) rate of 5.6%. This growth will be the highest since 2011, as the chart above shows.

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Contribution of e-commerce sales to overall retail sales will also grow

The above chart also shows that US retail e-commerce (electronic commerce) sales will grow at a rate of 13.9% this year, slightly slower growth compared to last year. Despite this slowdown, the percentage contribution of e-commerce sales to overall retail sales will grow from 8.3% in 2014 to 9% in 2015 during the holiday season.

The holiday season is generally the busiest period for retailers. Although Amazon didn’t announce many details on how last year’s holiday season went, Walmart announced that last year’s Thanksgiving was its second-biggest day ever for online sales.

Similarly, Target mentioned that Thanksgiving was its biggest online day ever. Best Buy (BBY) faced some issues with its website as it crashed repeatedly due to a surge in mobile traffic.

The eMarketer report mentions that “increases in real income from wages, further decreases in unemployment and an increased willingness to spend in traditional retail categories that missed out on the windfall in gas prices earlier on in the year should also drive growth.”

For diversified exposure to Amazon, you could invest in the PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF (QQQ), which invests about 4.9% of its holdings in Amazon.

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