WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures for June delivery showed a doji pattern on May 14, 2015. Oil prices have been fluctuating between $58 and $61 per barrel for the past ten trading sessions. Oversupply concerns are driving oil prices lower.
Support and resistance
The beginning of bearish momentum may mean oil prices could hit the key support of $58 per barrel. Oil prices tested this mark in April 2015. Massive supply and a strong dollar will continue to put pressure on oil prices. On the other hand, slowing US output could support crude oil prices. The next resistance point is at $66 per barrel. Prices tested this level last time in May 2009.
The rectangular trading range suggests oil prices could fluctuate within a broader range of between $55 and $64 per barrel in the near term. The RSI (relative strength index) is in overbought level. This signals prices could fall. A Bloomberg survey suggests a bearish week for WTI crude oil next week. The doji pattern also suggests crude oil prices could fall further, possibly to the nearest support level.
ETFs such as the VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN (UWTI) benefit from higher oil prices. In contrast, lower oil prices are positive for ETFs such as the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO).
Energy producers like ConocoPhillips (COP), Chevron (CVX), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) are affected by lower oil prices. Combined, these companies account for 5.15% of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). These upstream stocks have a crude oil production mix that’s more than 46% of their total production.
For the latest updates, visit Market Realist’s Crude Oil ETFs page.