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Why Panera Bread’s Stock Slumped After The Earnings

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Panera Bread’s stock slumped

Panera Bread (PNRA) reported its earnings after the market closed on February 11. Shares started trading at $163 the next trading day. This was down 7.6% from the previous day’s close of $176.50. The day’s high and low were $166 and $156.80, respectively.

The share volume was ~3.8 million shares—compared to the 90-day average daily volume of ~0.4 million shares. According to NASDAQ, Panera Bread closed at $157.30—down 10% from the previous day’s close of $176.50.

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Upgrades and downgrades

  • As of February 12, Sanford Bernstein maintained its “outperform” rating with a price target of $190.
  • Jefferies maintained Panera Bread to “hold.” It increased the price target to $164—from $155 in the previous quarter.
  • As of the date of this writing, ten analysts had a “buy” rating, 11 had a “hold” rating, and four had a “sell” rating on Panera Bread with a consensus target price of $172.

1Q15 estimates

In the first quarter, Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimates for Panera Bread are as follows:

  • Adjusted earnings per share, or EPS, is estimated to be $1.50.
  • Revenue is estimated at $660 million.
  • Operating profits are estimated to be at $61 million.
  • Adjusted net income is estimated at $38 million.
  • First quarter earnings are forecast to be announced on April 29.

In the next part of this series, we’ll cover Panera Bread’s year-to-date, or YTD, returns. We’ll also look at other companies like Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Starbucks (SBUX), and McDonald’s (MCD). You may also want to look at ETFs like the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY). XLY holds ~4% of McDonald’s.

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