A key preview of retail indicators due for release this week

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The ICSC–Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales and Redbook & Chain Store Sales reports

This week, three major retail (XLY) indicators are due :

  1. The weekly ICSC–Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index for the week ended July 5 – Tuesday, July 8
  2. The weekly Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index for the week ended July 5 – Tuesday, July 8
  3. The monthly Chain Store Sales report for June – Thursday, July 10

All three indices cover only about 10% of the total retail (VCR) sales in the country.

Last week, both the ICSC–Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index and the Johnson Redbook index recorded strong year-on-year gains. They increased 4.6% and 3.1%, respectively, in the week ended June 28. Chain store sales also reported strong gains in May. They increased 4.6%, year-over-year. Most retail segments saw gains despite adverse weather in many parts of the country. Chain store sales growth, in particular, showed the strongest growth since December 2011.

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But the sample for chain stores keeps changing for last month, depending on the retailers that choose to disclose monthly figures. For this reason, analysts use these indicators in addition to other consumer spending (FXD) and retail indicators to determine consumer spending patterns. So their impact on stock (VOO) and bond (AGG) markets is limited.

ICSC–Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index

This index measures the change in same-store sales. It’s based on a sample that includes major retail chains that statistically represent sales in the retail industry. The index reading excludes vehicle and restaurant sales.

Johnson Redbook Index

This index is a weekly measure designed to capture same-store sales growth at chain stores, discount stores, and departmental stores. The index offers you guidance on retail sales trends. But it covers only about 10% of the total retail sales in the country.

MBA purchase applications

In the next part of this series, we’ll preview the MBA purchase applications index for the week. This will come out on Wednesday, July 9.

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