- A huge surge in oil production in North Dakota has caused differentials between Bakken crude and WTI Midland crude to fluctuate and blow out at several points over the past several years as takeaway structure had lagged production.
- Recently, the differential between Bakken and WTI crudes stabilized and closed in as newly finished infrastructure came online. Bakken differentials to WTI had generally remained below $2.00/barrel since March, signaling sufficient takeaway capacity from the basin. Additionally, usage of rail rather than pipelines into Cushing have allowed Bakken crude to reach refining markets without having to pass through a crowded hub.
- More stable Bakken based crude prices and a lesser risk of the differential blowing out to ~$20+/barrel again is a positive for producers operating in the region.
- However, over the past several weeks the spread had widened at points up to $5.75/barrel. Recently, it has closed in to $3/barrel which is a short-term positive for producers in the region such as Continental Resources (CLR).
Last week, the spread between Bakken crude and WTI crude narrowed by $1.50/barrel, the first week after five weeks of the spread widening. Bakken crude closed $3.00/barrel under WTI crude (ths U.S. benchmark) on May 17th, compared to $4.50/barrel under WTI the week prior.
Over the past several years, oil production in the Bakken Shale/Williston Basin in North Dakota has increased rapidly. For example, production in March 2013 reached 718,790 barrels per day compared to 515,070 barrels per day in March 2012 and 291,820 barrels per day in March 2011.
With the surge in oil production came a huge need for oil takeaway infrastructure; however, the completion of infrastructure had struggled to keep up with the growth in production. This caused the price of Bakken crude to lag significantly behind WTI crude at some points over the past few years. Notably, in early 2012, the differential increased to as much as $27.50/barrel.
However, the spread has closed in dramatically since then as companies have successfully found other ways, such as rail, to transport crude out of the area. According to an article by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Pipelines are the most cost-effective way to transport crude oil in the United States, but they are expensive to build and may face regulatory hurdles. For these reasons, companies have turned to rail transport to deliver crude oil across the nation.” The surge in Bakken production demanded a quick and efficient takeaway solution, so rail capacity out of the area has greatly increased and this addition of infrastructure in the region has allowed Bakken crude to reach refining markets on the East Coast, West Coast, and Gulf Coast.
For example, during Continental Resources’ (a major Bakken operator) 4Q12 earnings call management noted, “… a fundamental change occurred in the (Williston) Basin with the emergence of multiple true rail markets, new loading facilities across the play, and the proliferation of offloading facilities at end user refineries on all three coasts. Logistical bottlenecks created market opportunities, allowing rail capacity to grow and become the primary mode of shipment out of Bakken… Now that capacity exceeds production and competitive markets are enabled, Continental has increased rail utilization and has access to refineries and markets throughout the U.S… During the year, we grew rail shipments to 72% of our Bakken oil in December from a starting point of 46% in January. As an industry, we’re displacing high-priced foreign crude on all three coasts, and by switching to low sulfur Bakken crude, refineries can potentially help meet stricter clean air standards… With the expected reduced volatility and now improved visibility and access to… infrastructure, we are narrowing and lowering our 2013 guidance range for differentials to $5-7 off WTI. This represents a 37% improvement on our previous estimates.” Additionally, on the company’s 1Q13 call, management noted, “First quarter average oil differential was $4.29 per barrel below and favorable to our 2013 guidance range of $5 to $7 for the year. In the first quarter, approximately 80% of our operated Bakken wells were railed out of the basin. Recently, we’ve seen a narrowing of the Brent/WTI spread, which is bringing the rail option into rough parity with pipeline alternatives.” As Continental noted, capacity is keeping pace with production.
In the short-term, last week the spread narrowed by $1.50/barrel, partially reversing a five week trend of widening, and creating a short-term positive for producers in the region. Additionally, over the medium to long-term, increased infrastructure has allowed for differentials to close and stabilize and has even spurred major Bakken operators, such as Continental Resources (CLR), to change guidance on its realized differentials to be closer to WTI. These developments are medium-term positive catalysts for other operators in the region, such as Hess Corp (HES), Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG), and XTO Energy (part of Exxon Mobil, XOM); over the medium-term, the spread had closed in to nearly par where it was trading as wide as $10/barrel in October 2012, and as wide as $27/barrel in February 2012.