Is the US Crude Oil Bull Market Sustainable?
Let’s track some important events for crude oil and natural gas traders on October 2–6, 2017.
- Tuesday, October 3, 2017 – the American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly crude oil inventory report.
- Wednesday, October 4, 2017 – the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) will release its US crude oil inventory report.
- Thursday, October 5, 2017 – the EIA will release its weekly US natural gas inventory report.
- Friday, October 6, 2017 – Baker Hughes will release its US crude oil and natural gas rig count report.
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High and low
US crude oil (XLE) (XES) futures hit $26.21 per barrel on February 11, 2016—the lowest level in 13 years. In contrast, prices hit $54.45 per barrel on February 23, 2017—the highest level in more than two years.
Crude oil futures drivers for this week
US crude oil (UWT) (DWT) prices entered the bull market in September 2017. We discussed crude oil’s bullish drivers in Part 1 of this series. However, prices could fall due to profit-taking. The expectation of a rise in US crude oil inventories and production could also limit the upside for crude oil prices. The strong dollar (UUP) could pressure crude oil prices. So, the recent rally isn’t sustainable. Volatility in crude oil prices impacts oil and gas producers (IXC) (VDE) like ExxonMobil (XOM), PDC Energy (PDCE), and ConocoPhillips (COP).
Brent crude oil futures closed at $57.54 per barrel on September 29, 2017. Reuters reported that some OPEC officials think that $60 per barrel for crude oil isn’t sustainable. OPEC officials think that global crude oil demand might slow down in early 2018. As a result, oversupply could pressure crude oil prices in early 2018. The recent rally might be short-lived. OPEC officials expect crude oil (USL) (USO) prices to trade between $50 and $55 per barrel.
In the next part of this series, we’ll see how Cushing crude oil inventories impact prices.