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Why Brent and US Crude Oil Futures Could Make a U-Turn

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Part 3
Why Brent and US Crude Oil Futures Could Make a U-Turn PART 3 OF 5

How Monthly US Crude Oil Production Has Supported Crude Prices

Monthly US crude oil production

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that monthly US crude oil production fell 24,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9.1 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in April 2017 compared to March 2017. Production fell for the first time in four months in April.

A fall in crude oil production supported crude oil prices last week. Production fell 0.3% month-over-month but rose 1.5% year-over-year. Meanwhile, US crude oil production has risen ~5% from the lows it hit in April 2014. It’s partially pressured US crude oil (UCO) (BNO) (SCO) prices, which have fallen 17.7% year-to-date (or YTD).

How Monthly US Crude Oil Production Has Supported Crude Prices

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Lower oil prices tend to negatively affect crude oil producers such as Sanchez Energy (SN), Swift Energy (SFY), Continental Resources (CLR), and Denbury Resources (DNR).

US crude oil production estimates 

The EIA estimates that US crude oil production could average 10 MMbpd in 2018—the highest level ever. For details on weekly crude oil production and forecasts, read US Crude Oil Production: Biggest Weekly Fall since July 2016.

US, Brazil, Nigeria, and Libya’s crude oil productions

Standard Chartered estimates that rises in crude oil production in the United States, Nigeria, Brazil, the North Sea, and Libya have contributed to more than 1 MMbpd to global supply. The rises in these countries’ productions could offset production cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC producers. In addition to these production cuts, OPEC hit a 2017 high in June 2017. These factors could weigh on crude oil (ERY) (ERX) (IXC) prices going forward.

In the next part of this series, we’ll see how Russia’s crude oil production could affect crude oil prices.

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