What Devon Energy’s Implied Volatility Could Say about Its Stock Price
Devon Energy’s implied volatility
On May 18, 2017, Devon Energy (DVN) had an implied volatility of ~33.9, which is ~14.9% below its 260-trading day historical price volatility of ~39.9%.
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Devon Energy’s 30-day stock price forecast using implied volatility
Assuming normal distribution of prices and a standard deviation of 1, based on its implied volatility of ~33.9%, Devon Energy stock is expected to close between $33.31–$40.49 after 30 calendar days.
Based on the standard statistical formula, Devon Energy stock could stay in this range ~68% of the time.
Other upstream stocks
On May 18, 2017, upstream stocks Denbury Resources (DNR), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and ConocoPhillips (COP) had implied volatilities of ~101.4%, ~31.2%, and ~26.8%, respectively. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had implied volatility of ~11.0%.
Implied volatility shows the market’s opinion of the stock’s potential moves, but it doesn’t forecast direction. Implied volatility is derived from the option pricing model. The data is theoretical in nature, and there is no guarantee these forecasts will be correct.