Last week, crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) producer ConocoPhillips (COP) saw its stock underperform crude oil prices. ConocoPhillips stock price rose marginally from $45.67 to $45.69, whereas crude oil prices were up moderately from $48.49 per barrel to $49.31 per barrel during the same period.
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COP’s stock price bounced from its 50-week moving average and formed a reversal candlestick pattern on its weekly chart. In 2016, ConocoPhillips’s stock was up ~10%, whereas so far in 2017 COP’s stock is down by ~8%. COP’s stock hit a 52-week low of $38.19 on April 5, 2016, whereas it hit a 52-week high of $53.17 on December 13, 2016.
COP’s peers Devon Energy (DVN) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are up by ~0.85% and ~2.4%, respectively, in the last one week. The oil and gas exploration and production companies (XOP) outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) last week. The Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF (ERX) is a leveraged ETF that invests in domestic companies from the energy sector.
COP rallied sharply from its low of $38.37 in August 2016 to a high of $52.89 in December 2016. Since then, COP has been in a moderate downtrend and could be consolidating its gains. Currently, COP is trading below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average. On March 17, 2017, COP’s stock price closed at $45.69, whereas its 50-day and 200-day moving averages stand at $48.56 and $44.80, respectively. COP’s 50-day moving average turned downwards three weeks ago, but its 200-day moving average is still trending upward.
Let’s now analyze the possible trading range for COP stock for this week based on its implied volatility.