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Will Crude Oil Prices Break the Trading Range?

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Updated

Price channel 

November WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices are showing the emergence of a rectangular trading range. Prices have been fluctuating within this trading range for more than a month. The rising US crude oil inventory would be the catalyst for driving crude oil prices.

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Key pivots 

The long-term bearish momentum and oversupply concerns will drag crude oil prices lower. Crude oil prices could see support at $38 per barrel. Prices hit this mark in August 2015. On the other hand, rising demand from India and South Korea could support crude oil prices. The next resistance for crude oil prices is seen at $52 per barrel. Prices tested this level in July 2015.

Crude oil price estimates 

BP (BP) is a global energy giant. Its management expects that crude oil prices could trade lower due to global oversupplies concerns. Schlumberger (SLB) projects that crude oil prices could recover in 2017. We could see the worst crude oil market rout in many decades. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C) expect crude oil prices to trade lower due to the strong dollar and weak demand from China.

In contrast, UBS Wealth Management estimates that crude oil prices will hit $70 per barrel in 2016. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that crude oil prices could average around $50 per barrel in 2015 and $55 per barrel in 2016. The consensus of rising production from Libya, Iraq, and Iran over the long term will also fuel pessimistic sentiments.

The volatility in the crude oil market also impacts ETFs like the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO).

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