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What Does Gundlach Have to Say about the Fed’s Next Moves?
As far as the Fed’s next moves are concerned, Gundlach said that if the market forces are allowed to prevail, interest rates should go up even in the next downturn.
Markets Spooked as Yield Curve Inverts for First Time since 2007
The Treasury yield curve turned negative on March 22. The ten-year yield fell below the three-month yield for the first time since 2007.
Bank of America Expects the Markets to Fall in 2019
Bank of America’s equity and quantitative strategist, Savita Subramanian, expects a decline in the S&P 500 (SPY) in 2019—compared to 2018.
What an Inverted Yield Curve Means for Gold
The yield curve tracks the yields of Treasury securities maturing at different times. For example, the yield of two-year securities (SHY) is usually lower than that of ten-year securities (IEF)(TLT).
Yield Curve Inverts for the First Time since 2007
A yield curve tracks the yields of Treasury securities maturing at different times.
Bank of America’s Suggestions for Investors in a Market Decline
In a note published last week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch equity and quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian said, “We believe the peak in equities is likely before the end of 2019.”
Will the Fed Consider the Risk of a Recession?
The current shape of the curve implies that the bond market expects a weaker outlook for 2019 and lower inflation.
Trade War Risk Worries Fund Managers: Should You Be Concerned?
In the BAML September 2018 survey, trade war concerns were cited as the top concern among global fund managers.
Should You Be Worried about the Possible Yield Curve Inversion?
When the yield curve (BND) inverts, it means that the yields of shorter-duration securities become larger than those of longer-term securities.
Trade Tensions: Markets Could Continue to Boil This Week
This week is another crucial week for investors amid the trade spat between the US and its trading partners.
Yield Curve Narrows to Decade Low
A yield curve tracks the yields of Treasury securities maturing at different times.
Fed Officials Are Divided on the Significance of the Yield Curve
While most Fed officials agreed on rates and trade concerns, there was disagreement among them regarding the significance of the yield curve.
Trade War Is Still Investors’ Top Concern: Should You Be Worried?
While fund managers are bullish on US equities (SPY), there’s still no lack of concern in the market.
Howard Marks: This Is the Single Biggest Equity Market Risk
Howard Marks said at the 2018 Delivering Alpha Conference on July 23 that the Fed’s hawkish stance is the single biggest risk for the equity market (SPY).
David Rubenstein Thinks Two More Rate Hikes Won’t Hurt US Economy
David Rubenstein, the co-founder and co-executive chair of the Carlyle Group, said at the Delivering Alpha Conference that further interest rate hikes likely won’t damage the US economy.
What Does the Flattening of the Yield Curve Mean for Gold?
It doesn’t come as a surprise that Wall Street is concerned about a potential slowdown, as the spreads have significantly narrowed between the two-year and ten-year Treasury yields.
How Is the Fed Influencing Precious Metal Demand?
The Fed has hinted that there could be two more interest rate hikes this year, for a total of four hikes in 2018.
What’s the Impact of Interest Rates on Precious Metals?
Monetary policies have been crucial in determining the movement in precious metals.
How the Rate Hike Trajectory in the United States Impacts Gold
Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), and Gold Fields (GFI) have declined 5.2%, 5.4%, 6.2%, and 2.8%, respectively.
What Bond Market Investors Are Watching for This Week
The US bond market continued to rebound as trade tensions and the limited appreciation in equity markets pushed demand for bonds higher, depressing the bond yields for a second consecutive week.
How the Yield Spread Changed the Outlook for the Economy
In the May LEI report, the yield spread had a net impact of 0.14 (or 14.0%).
What to Make of the Rebound of the Credit Index in May
The Leading Credit Index expanded for the first time in four months in May with a reading of -0.86.
Will Risk-Off Trade Push Bond Markets Higher?
The US bond market had a limited reaction to the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate hike and the 0.20% increase in interest paid on excess reserves.
Will Bond Market Investors Benefit from Risk-Off Trade?
The US bond market seems to be benefiting from multiple crises around the world.
Strong Jobs Report Had a Limited Impact on the Bond Market
The US bond market was volatile in May. The ten-year yield reached a peak of 3.1% and fell to a low of 2.8% in a span of three weeks.
Are Bond Yields Taking a Breather?
The US bond market had some relief from its ongoing slide as the Fed’s May meeting minutes were less hawkish than expected.
What’s Supporting Gold Prices and What’s Not
On Thursday, silver was up 0.8% to $16.6 an ounce.
Will Yield Spreads Continue to Decline?
The US bond markets remained under selling pressure as bond yields, especially at the short end of the curve, continued to shoot up, while the long-term yields remained subdued.
Should We Worry about the Contracting Credit Index?
The Conference Board uses credit conditions in the economy as one of the components of the leading economic index (or LEI) economic model.
Why Bond Yields Could Increase This Week
US ten-year bond market yields have scaled a new seven-year peak at 3.07, their highest level since July 2011.
US Yields Peak and Gold Slumps. Are the Dots Connecting?
US ten-year Treasury note yields (IEF) hit a high mark of approximately 3.1% today—a record since July 2011.
Why Last Week’s Events Made the Bond Markets Interesting
US bond market yields continue to trend higher, but their overall movement last week was limited.
Disappointing April Jobs Report: Lower June Rate Hike Odds?
For the week ending May 4, the ten-year (IEF) yield closed at 3% and depreciated by 0.8 basis points. The two-year yield (SHY) closed at 2.50%.
Treasury Yields Hit 3% and Gold Fell: Coincidence?
In addition to the US dollar playing on precious metals, US interest rates and the decisions by the Federal Reserve have also historically had a substantial impact on these safe havens.
Analyzing the Bond Market This Week
This week is important for the bond markets (BSV). Reports are scheduled for inflation, personal income, and non-farm payrolls.
Why Interest Rate Spreads Are Decreasing Again
In April, the yield spread has declined to the lowest level since the Great Recession and could decline further if inflation doesn’t accelerate.
What to Make of a Contracting Leading Credit Index
In March, the Leading Credit Index recorded a reading of -0.46, declining, compared to the February reading of -0.79.
Why Yield Curve Steepening Could Be Short-Lived
The US bond markets were under pressure as the yield curve continued flattening until Wednesday last week.
Fed Member Mester Says Flat Yield Curve Is Not a Sign of Weakness
Fed member Loretta Mester has sided with Fed Chair Jerome Powell that a flattening yield curve doesn’t signal a weakness.
What Makes the Yield Curve Turn Flat or Invert?
The reason for the current yield flattening in this cycle is lower expectations for inflation growth.
Why the Markets Are Worried about the Yield Curve
The spread, or the difference between the ten-year and two-year US Treasury bonds, has fallen below 50 bps for the first time since 2007.
Bond Market Pain Could Continue This Week
If there aren’t any more negative surprises this week, the US bond market could continue to struggle.
Is It Time for Fiscal Expansion?
An economy records a budget deficit when its annual revenue generated is lower than its expenditure.
Why Rosengren Thinks US Monetary Policy Tools Are Inadequate
In his keynote delivered at the tenth conference organized by the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in March, Boston Federal Reserve president Eric Rosengren highlighted US policy tools’ deficiency in combating another recession.
Leading Credit Index Contracted for the First Time in 7 Months
The Leading Credit Index for February was reported at ~-1.2, declining from the January reading of ~-1.7.
Why Bond Markets Returned to Worrying about Flattening Yield Curve
The US bond markets moved marginally higher in the previous week as investors’ worry about rising bond yields fell after the February inflation print showed stable growth.
Why February’s Jobs Report Had a Negative Impact on Bond Markets
The US bond markets were the only asset class that failed to rally after the February jobs report was released on March 9, 2018.
Tariff-Related Volatility Could Impact Bond Markets
For the week ending March 2, the ten-year yield (IEF) tested 2.9% after Powell’s hawkish comments. However, IEF settled at 2.9% at the end of the week.
What the Lending Credit Index in January Tells Us Now
The Conference Board uses credit conditions in the economy as one of the key constituents in its LEI (Leading Economic Index).
Double Whammy: Rate Hikes and Balance Sheet Trimming
The US Federal Reserve has accumulated huge quantities of fixed-income (BND) securities as part of its three quantitative easing programs, QEs 1, 2, and 3.