A Look into the Implied Volatilities of Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Crude oil’s implied volatility was 37.1% on September 9, 2016. Its 15-day average implied volatility is 35.1%.
Miscellaneous
How Weather Could Be a Bullish Catalyst for Natural Gas
The weather forecast for September 12–18, 2016, indicates that US temperatures could remain higher than the five-year average for the same period.
How Could the Weather Impact Natural Gas Prices?
Weather forecasts for September 5–11 indicate that temperatures in the United States could remain higher than the five-year average for the same period, except on September 5.
Morgan Stanley, Citibank Doubt Longevity of Iron Ore Price Rally
Morgan Stanley is bearish on the future prospects of iron ore prices. The broker estimates that the iron ore prices will fall to $40 per ton in 2H16 and $35 per ton in 4Q16.
What Does The Price Action in Natural Gas Indicate?
In the last five trading sessions, natural gas October futures have risen by 1.8%. They closed at ~$2.89 per MMBtu on August 31, 2016.
How the Dell-EMC Deal May Affect VMware’s Future
For the past year, uncertainty has been looming over VMware (VMW), primarily due to the impending Dell-EMC deal. EMC has an 80% stake and 97% of the voting rights in VMware.
Why China’s Iron Ore Imports May See a Near-Term Pullback
In July 2016, China’s iron ore imports came in at 88.4 million tons. This was a rise of 2.7% compared to 86.1 million tons in July 2015 and 81.6 million tons in June 2016.
Implied Volatilities of Crude Oil, Natural Gas in Focus
Crude oil’s implied volatility was 31.6% on August 26, 2016. That’s 18% below its 15-day average.
What’s Driving Natural Gas Prices Higher?
Natural gas prices broke above the 20-day moving average on August 23. This indicates short-term bullishness in natural gas prices.
How Will Weather Affect Natural Gas Prices This Week?
Lower temperatures decrease the use of natural gas (UNG) (DGAZ) (BOIL) (FCG) (UGAZ) (GASL) for cooling purposes during the summer.
How Will the Weather Impact Natural Gas This Week?
In the week ending August 12, temperatures were higher than the forecast for the week. Natural gas futures fell 6.7% for the week ending on August 12.
What Do US Retail Sales Data Mean to Crude Oil?
The Market’s expectation of a rate hike could boost the US Dollar Index (UUP)—this could have a negative impact on crude oil prices.
Country ETFs: Double Down on Emerging Markets?
The upside reversal in emerging market equity ETFs has become one of the most remarkable investment themes in 2016. Investors don’t want to miss out.
What’s China’s Ranking in Index of Economic Freedom 2016?
China fell into the “mostly unfree” category, according to the Index of Economic Freedom for 2016. It was ranked 144th and scored 52.0 on the index.
How China’s Population Control Created Social, Economic Problems
The one-child policy in China decreased population growth, but it produced social disadvantages such as gender imbalance and other social problems.
China’s Human Rights Violations and Population Control Policies
According to a recent Congressional report, 2015 was the worst year on record for human rights violations in China.
Category Flows: Looking for Yield? Be Picky!
The rise of the actively selective investor becomes more nuanced within the context of our entire ETF universe.
Country ETFs: Hungry Emerging Market Bulls
Investor appetite for emerging market exposure has been growing steadily, and last week’s fund flows showed that emerging market bulls are still hungry.
ETF Flows in 30 Seconds: 5 Things That Matter
Last week‘s ETF fund flows showed the beginning of a remarkable shift in investor behavior and asset allocation.
Category Flows: ETF Construction Matters!
The iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT) saw by far the largest inflows within our ETF universe last week.
The Dollar Index and Economic Uncertainty: Is There Correlation?
The rally in the US Dollar Index can be correlated to two important events: the dot-com bubble crisis in 1999 and the Argentine debt crisis in 2001.
Monetary Policy Statement: Why the ECB Kept Rates Unchanged
The ECB decided to keep the key rates unchanged in the monetary policy review on July 21, 2016. The pound was the major loser among the currencies.
In Retrospect: How the 2008 Crisis Affected SPY’s Valuation
When the 2008 credit crisis affected the S&P 500 Index (SPY), we saw a large shift in valuations and the index level.
How Might Yields React to a Dot-Com Bubble Situation?
During the 1999–2002 dot-com bubble crisis, the US 2-Year Treasury yield fell by 74%. It made a high of 6.9% in May 2000 and a low of 1.8% in September 2002.
Scenario Analysis: What to Expect after the Brexit Vote
If negotiations after the Brexit vote pave a tough road for the United Kingdom, then other countries will be forced to rethink a referendum.
Analyzing Cal-Maine Foods’ Variable Dividend Policy
Cal-Maine has a variable dividend policy in place. It has a dividend yield of 5.8% as of June 28. Management raised the dividend at a CAGR of 15.3% over five years.
What Could Explain Soybeans’ Low Stock-to-Use Ratio?
In June 2016, the global soybean stock-to-use ratio stood at 20.2%, which was at its lowest point compared to the past four years.
Why Are So Many Analysts Rating B&G Foods a ‘Hold’?
Approximately 78% of analysts rate B&G Foods a “hold,” and 22% rate it a “buy.” None of the analysts rate it a “sell.”
Why Are Soybean Prices Rising?
On June 26, 2016, soybean prices stood at $11 per bushel, compared to ~$10 per bushel on June 26, 2015.
Why Did the Bank of England Relax Regulatory Requirements?
The BOE (Bank of England) released the Financial Stability Report on July 5, 2016. It warned multiple times about the repercussions of a Brexit.
Analysts Have Revised EPS Estimates for B&G Foods: Why?
B&G Foods’ (BGS) earnings estimates have been on an upward trend since its fiscal 1Q16 impressive results. The Green Giant acquisition contributed to the results.
Cal-Maine Plans to Increase Its Value-Added Specialty Egg Business
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) plans to grow its specialty egg business by meeting consumer demand in the rapidly growing segment.
Why Did Cal-Maine Shares Fall 23% in the Last 3 Months?
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) saw declining growth in its shares in the last three months. The company’s shares are trading close to its 52-week low.
Britain Contributes Little to the Global Semiconductor Industry
Europe accounted for only 10% of global semiconductor sales in April 2016, according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics.
Arconic Isn’t Precision Castparts, and the Market Knows That!
Market participants who are bullish on Alcoa (AA) point to Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK-B) acquisition of Precision Castparts.
Will Brexit Continue to Impact XPO Logistics?
Following the United Kingdom’s decision to exit the European Union, XPO Logistic’s (XPO) stock fell 13.4% on June 24.
How Did LinkedIn’s Growth and Earnings Quality Look before Deal?
Microsoft (MSFT) announced the acquisition of LinkedIn (LNKD) for $26.2 billion in cash on June 13, 2016.
Why Tesla’s SolarCity Acquisition Could Pay Off
According to Tesla’s (TSLA) SolarCity acquisition proposal, it’s ready to pay $26.50 to $28.50 per share for SolarCity.
How Did Ammonia Prices Move Last Week?
Last week, nitrogen producers CF Industries (CF), CVR Partners (UAN), Terra Nitrogen (TNH), and PotashCorp (POT) ended in the red.
Will the Dollar’s Recovery Affect Crude Oil?
Between June 7 and June 14, 2016, crude oil (USO) fell by ~3.7% while the US dollar index (UUP) rose by around 1.2%.
What’s the Rationale for the Microsoft-LinkedIn Merger?
LinkedIn will be a standalone entity within Microsoft. This transaction is part of Microsoft’s plan to focus on cloud-based offerings. It wants to rely less on PCs.
Last Week’s DAP Fertilizer Price Trends: Must-Knows
Ammonia is used to make phosphate fertilizers like DAP (diammonium phosphate) and MAP (monoammonium phosphate).
Why MAP Fertilizer Prices Continue to Stabilize
Last, average MAP prices in Brazil inched up to $353 per metric ton from $352 per metric ton the previous week.
How Will the HPE-CSC Merger Benefit the Companies’ Stakeholders?
The merger of Computer Science Corporation (CSC) and Hewlett-Packard Enterprise’s (HPE) Enterprise Services business is expected to expand its customers’ access to digital innovation.
Urea Prices: Still a Concern for Nitrogen Fertilizer Stocks
As most global ammonia production is upgrading to urea, ammonia prices may affect urea prices.
Ammonium Phosphate Prices: A Comparison
MAP (monoammonium phosphate) is the second-most used phosphate fertilizer after DAP (diammonium phosphate).
How Do Natural Gas Price Forecasts Impact Fertilizer Companies?
Natural gas is the key raw material for the production of nitrogen fertilizers such as ammonia and urea.
How Monsanto’s Business Fits into Bayer’s Portfolio
What’s in it for Bayer when it comes to acquiring Monsanto (MON)? The answer lies in Bayer’s business segments and geographic reach.
How Did Ammonia Prices Trend Last Week?
Ammonia prices for Tampa CFR (cost and freight) moved down 1.6% to $315 per metric ton compared to $320 per metric ton in the previous week.
How Is Disney’s Acquisition Strategy Reaping Rewards?
On May 20, The Walt Disney Company announced that Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War was set to surpass $1 billion in earnings at the global box office.