More From Rabindra Samanta
Natural Gas’s ‘Death Cross’ and Why the Bear Market Isn’t Far
On July 5, 2017, natural gas (UNG) active futures fell 3.8% and settled at $2.84 per MMBtu (million British thermal units), their lowest level since March 8, 2017.
Which Energy Stocks Are Impacted More by Crude Oil?
On September 12, WTI crude oil (UWTI) (USO) (OIIL) (USL) (SCO) (DWTI) active contracts closed at $46.29 per barrel—0.9% above the previous closing price.
Are Oil’s Supply Concerns Rising?
On May 21, US crude oil July futures closed $5.97 above the July 2019 futures contract. On May 14–21, US crude oil July futures rose 1.9%.
Natural Gas’s Surge in November 2017
Between October 30 and November 6, 2017, US crude oil futures rose 5.9%.
Why the Numbers Look Bearish for These Upstream Stocks
All these upstream companies have seen the short interest in their stocks rise—an potential indication of market skepticism in these companies’ abilities to profit from oil’s recent gains.
ConocoPhillips: Investors’ Confidence Is Rising
Since ConocoPhillips (COP) reported its fourth-quarter earnings results on January 31, the stock has fallen 1.7%.
Which Upstream Stocks Are More Sensitive to Crude Oil?
In the last three months, Abraxas Petroleum (AXAS) has had the highest positive correlation with WTI crude oil among upstream companies that are part of XOP.
Correlations between Energy ETFs and the Broader Market’s Moves
In the seven calendar days to February 8, 2018, OIH, XOP, XLE, and AMLP fell 13.6%, 12.7%, 11.8%, and 8.2%, respectively.
What Oil’s Rising Contango Tells Traders
On May 9, 2017, June 2017 crude oil futures were trading at a discount of $2.4 to June 2018 futures contracts—the highest discount since March 22, 2017.
DUK, AWK, FE: Why These Utility Stocks Are in Focus
NRG Energy (NRG) has risen 23.1% in the past year, the most among high-volatility utility stocks.
Investors Should Look at Rigs before Placing Bets on Oil
The US crude oil rig count was 525 in the week ending December 30—a rise of two rigs compared to the previous week, according to data released by BHI.
Top Energy Losses Last Week
On June 8–15, Whiting Petroleum (WLL) and California Resources (CRC) fell the most on our list of energy stocks.
Rising Oil Inventories Spread Impacts Oil Prices
US commercial crude oil inventories rose by ~9.5 MMbbls (million barrels) in the week ending on February 10, 2017—compared to the previous week.
Returns for OFS Stocks with High and Low Implied Volatility
Schlumberger had the lowest implied volatility figures among all of the OFS companies on May 31, 2016. It has returned 9.4% on a YTD basis.
Futures Spread Indicates Bullishness for Oil Prices
Yesterday, US crude oil November 2018 futures closed ~$3.48 above November 2019 futures, and between September 17 and yesterday, US crude oil November futures rose 5%.
Crude Oil Is Firming: Are Traders Looking for a Breakout?
US crude oil April futures rose 0.4% in the week ending on February 24, 2017. WTI crude oil April futures closed at $53.99 per barrel on February 24.
Oil and Natural Gas Fell: Is Your Energy Portfolio at Risk?
US crude oil April futures fell 0.9% in the week ending on February 17, 2017. WTI crude oil April futures closed at $53.40 per barrel on February 17, 2017.
What to Expect from Crude Oil Prices in March 2017
US crude oil futures contracts for April delivery closed at $54.01 per barrel on February 28, 2017—0.1% less than the previous closing price.
ConocoPhillips Is Nearing the $40 Price Level
ConocoPhillips stock is nearing its psychologically important price level of $40. It hasn’t been able to break above this level since January 5.
Options Traders Should Watch Midstream Stock Returns
EnLink Midstream rose 63.2% in the past year ending on February 6. It has the highest implied volatility of all the midstream companies that make up AMLP.
Is $30 for Crude Oil Coming?
US crude oil (USO) (OIIL) (USL) (DBO) futures contracts for May delivery closed at $48.24 per barrel on March 21, 2017.
WTI Crude Oil: Where It Could Settle This Week
Crude oil’s (USO) (DBO) (USL) (OIIL) implied volatility was 26.6% on April 28, 2017, which was 4.6% above its 15-day average.
Integrated Energy and Refiner Stocks with High Implied Volatility
As of November 8, 2016, Alon USA Partners (ALDW) had the highest implied volatility among the integrated energy and refining companies in this series.
Short Interest: Analyzing How It Impacts OFS Stocks
Tidewater’s (TDW) short interest-to-equity float ratio is 40.1%—the highest among the OFS stocks that are part of the VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH).
Natural Gas Prices: Is a Reversal Possible?
On July 19, 2017, natural gas August futures closed at $3.07 per MMBtu (million British thermal units), 0.7% below their previous settling price.
Iran Could Become OPEC’s Leading Natural Gas Producer
The market is expecting that after the ban is lifted, Iran will be the leading natural gas producer in OPEC. The cartel has been led by Saudi Arabia.
Why Are Investors Bearish on These Upstream Stocks?
California Resources’s short interest-to-equity float ratio has been following a rising trend for the last three months. During this period, the stock has fallen 20.5%—the largest fall among the upstream stocks.
Energy ETFs Could Be More Aligned to Equity Markets than Oil
In the trailing week, OIH rose 0.5%—the only energy ETF on our list that closed in the green. US crude oil futures rose 2.6%.
Why Could Oil Inventories Pressure Crude Oil Prices?
The relationship between crude oil inventories and crude oil prices is inverse. Crude oil prices bottomed out in early 2016.
These Were Last Week’s Weakest Energy Stocks
Integrated energy stock YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) was the second weakest on our list last week, and midstream stocks Western Gas Partners (WES) and Shell Midstream Partners (SHLX) ranked third and fourth.
Why Did Crude Oil Fall 2.2% Last Week?
US crude oil prices (USO) (OIIL) fell by 2.2% in the week ended June 17, 2016. Crude oil closed at $47.98 per barrel on the same day.
WTI Oil’s Struggle: Which Oil-Weighted Stocks Should You Watch?
On July 18, US crude oil September futures rose 0.9% and closed at $67.75 per barrel.
Why Are Oil and Equity Indexes Diverging?
Last week, the S&P Mid-Cap 400 (IVOO), the S&P 500 (SPY), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) fell 5.2%, 4.6%, and 4.5%, respectively.
Is the Oil Rig Count Signaling Another Fall in Oil Prices?
On July 16, US crude oil August futures fell 4.2% and settled at $68.06 per barrel—their lowest closing level since June 21.
Energy Stocks: Biggest Losses Last Week
In the week ending May 24, oilfield services stock Nabors Industries (NBR) fell the most among the stocks in the energy space.
Which Midstream Stocks Led in Short Interest?
As of August 29, 2016, EnLink Midstream (ENLC) had the highest short interest-to-equity float ratio among midstream stocks at 10.1%.
What Could Drive Energy ETFs?
Among the energy ETFs, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) had the highest correlation with US oil (UCO) (USO) prices at 78.7% between May 11 and May 18, 2017.
BP Traded 10% below Its 100-Day Moving Average
BP (BP) was trading 10% below its 100-day moving average as of February 23, 2016. Currently, the stock is at $29. It’s below the important psychological level of $30.
Returns of Oilfield Services Stocks with High Implied Volatility
Tidewater (TDW) has the highest implied volatility among all of the OFS companies. The stock has fallen 65.1% on a YTD (year-to-date) basis.
US Crude Oil at New High, but Is Upside Limited?
On November 2, 2017, US crude oil (USO) (USL) December futures rose 0.4% and settled at $54.54 per barrel, the highest closing price for US crude oil active futures in 2017.
Why Energy Could Spell Worry for Wall Street Bulls
US crude oil (USO) (USL) April futures fell 6.3% between March 2, 2017, and March 9, 2017. The fall in XLE corresponded with weakness in crude oil prices.
Why Did the EIA Cut Its Production Estimates for Natural Gas?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) lowered its production estimates for natural gas. The fall in production corresponds to lower natural gas prices.
Traders Are Most Bearish about These Midstream Stocks
On December 12, 2016, EnLink Midstream (ENLC) had a short-interest-to-equity float ratio of 9.5%, the highest among all the midstream companies that are part of the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP).
Brent-WTI Spread: Why It’s Crucial for Energy Investors
On March 28, 2017, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil active futures were trading at a discount of $2.96 per barrel to Brent crude oil active futures.
Which Oilfield Services Stocks Lead in Short Interest?
Currently, Diamond Offshore Drilling’s (DO) short interest-to-equity float ratio is 32.1%, the highest among the oilfield services stocks that are part of the VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH).
Did Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks Outperform Natural Gas?
Between June 13 and June 20, our equally weighted basket of natural gas–weighted stocks rose 4.6%—compared to a 6.2% rise in natural gas for the same period.
US Oil Inventories Spread Impacts Crude Oil Prices
US commercial crude oil inventories rose by ~6.5 MMbbls (million barrels) in the week ending January 27, 2017—compared to the previous week.
Tracking Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks after the Inventory Report
On December 13, 2017, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) January futures rose 1.4% and closed at $2.715 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
Has Oil’s Downfall Started?
On February 8, 2018, US crude oil’s March 2018 futures fell 1% and closed at $61.15 per barrel. USO and UCO fell 2.3% and 4.4% on the same day.
Key Energy Industry Updates for May 30–June 2
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) has started operations on the FPSO (Floating Production Storage Offloading) P-66 in the Lula South Field, Santos Basin, Brazil.
What Does the Shift in the Natural Gas Futures Spread Indicate?
On April 5, 2017, active natural gas (UNG) (FCG) (BOIL) (GASL) futures were trading at a premium of $0.33 to futures contracts 12 months forward.
Is the Oil Market Moving toward a Supply Deficit?
On February 16, 2018, US crude oil April 2018 futures closed $5.34 above the April 2019 futures contract.
Energy Stocks that Could Outdo Natural Gas
Between May 15 and May 22, 2017, natural gas June futures fell 0.6%. During that same period, an equally weighted selection of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 1.5%.
Why Are Oil Prices Keeping Wall Street Investors on Their Toes?
For the week ending September 23, 2016, November US crude oil futures rose 2%. The S&P 500 Index (SPY) rose 1.2% during the week.
What Are Leon Cooperman’s Top Holdings?
In Q3, billionaire investor Leon Cooperman’s top five holdings were Fiserv, Alphabet, United Continental, Chimera Investment, and Cigna.
Crude Oil Makes New 2016 Highs: Following Oil-Weighted Stocks
On December 12, WTI crude oil January contracts closed at $52.83 per barrel. It was ~2.6% higher than the last closing price and the highest level for 2016.
Oil Contango: What It Means for Investors
On April 11, 2017, May 2017 crude oil (DBO) (OIIL) (USL) futures were trading at a discount of $1.15 to May 2018 futures contracts.
Key Energy Industry Updates from July 24–28, 2017
Valero Energy (VLO) posted its 2Q17 results on July 27, 2017. Its revenue surpassed the Wall Street analyst consensus estimate by ~10.5%.
Futures Spread Nearing Discount: US Crude Sentiment Might Reverse
On October 22, US crude oil December 2018 futures closed just ~$0.6 above the December 2019 futures.
Backwardation: What It Could Mean for Crude Oil Prices
When the crude oil futures forward curve to slopes downwards, the situation in the crude oil futures market is called “backwardation.”
Analyzing Natural Gas ETFs Last Week
On December 21–28, the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell 9.4%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) fell 17.5%.
Will US Crude Oil Hit $60?
The EIA reported a fall of 8.6 MMbbls (million barrels) in US crude oil inventories to 445.9 MMbbls for last week.
How Much Natural Gas Could Fall Next Week
On November 16, 2017, the implied volatility of natural gas was 44%—6.4% above its 15-day average.
Why Oil Prices Could Increase More
On January 22, 2018, US crude oil active futures were 3.1%, 7.8%, 15.8%, and 23.7% above their 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages.
What Caused the U-Turn in Oil Prices?
On February 15, 2018, US crude oil’s April 2018 futures rose 1.1% and settled at $61.17 per barrel. On the same day, the US dollar fell 0.6%.
Oil’s Contango: Supply–Demand Fears Could Impact the Market
On October 3, 2017, US crude oil (USL) (OIIL) November 2018 futures settled $0.33 higher than the November 2017 futures.
How US Consumer Sentiment Affects Energy Commodities
The US consumer sentiment index was at 96.9 in March’s final reading.
Will Natural Gas Prices Fall to $2.8 Next Week?
On November 2, 2017, natural gas’s (GASL) (GASX) implied volatility was 38.2%, 1.8% below its 15-day average.
Which Oil-Weighted Stocks Could Outperform Oil’s Downturn?
On February 11, 2016, US crude oil touched a 12-year low. From February 11, 2016, to March 13, 2017, US crude oil active futures contracts rose 84.7%.
Soros Fund Management’s Major Picks amid Trade War
Soros Fund Management’s top five buys in the second quarter were Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), Alphabet, eBay, Symantec, and Red Hat.
Brent-WTI Spread: Will US Oil Exports Rise Further?
On October 24, 2017, Brent crude oil (BNO) active futures were $5.86 above WTI crude oil active futures.
Will US Crude Oil Prices Surpass $54?
On January 28, US crude oil hit an intraday high of $53.64. Over the last six trading sessions, US crude oil prices have struggled to surpass the $54 level.
Comparing Natural Gas ETFs’ Performances to Natural Gas Prices
Between January 18 and January 25, the United States Natural Gas ETF fell 3.6%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF fell 8.1%.
Why Did Oil Prices Move Higher?
On February 22, 2018, US crude oil’s April 2018 futures rose 1.8% and closed at $62.77 per barrel.
Natural Gas near $3: Which Gas-Weighted Stocks to Ride?
On March 6, 2017, natural gas futures contracts for April 2017 delivery closed at $2.9 per MMBtu, which is ~2.6% above the previous closing price.
Why the Equity Market Could Be Dragging Oil Prices Down
On March 19, US crude oil May futures fell 0.4% and settled at $62.13 per barrel. US crude oil May futures made a high of $62.44 per barrel.
Are Traders Confident about the Oil Supply-Demand Balance?
Between December 29, 2017, and January 8, 2018, the premium and the oil prices rose. The market expects a tightening supply-demand balance for oil in 2018.
What Does the IEA Think about the Oil Market?
On January 17, US crude oil March futures fell 0.5% and settled at $52.36 per barrel. In the trailing week, US crude oil prices fell 1%.
How the Inventory Spread Could Boost Natural Gas Prices
In the week ended October 6, natural gas inventories rose by 87 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,595 Bcf—13 Bcf more than the market expected inventories to rise.
Where Natural Gas Prices Might Head Next Week
Natural gas futures are expected to close between $3.24 and $3.85 per MMBtu 68.0% of the time until January 4.
Which Utility Stocks Have the Highest Implied Volatility?
On February 15, 2017, NRG Energy had the highest implied volatility among the utility companies that make up the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU).
These Gas-Weighted Stocks Could Mirror Natural Gas’s Bearishness
On April 24, 2017, natural gas futures (UNG) (BOIL) (FCG) contracts for June 2017 delivery closed at $3.16 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
Why Did XOP Outperform Other Energy ETFs?
On August 4, 2016, US crude oil (USO) (OIIL) active futures contracts closed at $41.93. They rose by 2.7% on August 4 compared to the previous trading session.
Are Supply Fears Returning to the Oil Market?
On December 5, 2017, the January 2018 futures contract for US crude oil settled at a premium of $2.5 to January 2019 futures.
Does Energy Contribute to Wall Street’s Gains?
On December 16, 2016, at 2:19 AM EST, US crude oil (OIIL) was trading at $51.07 per barrel—an 0.8% fall compared to its closing price on December 9, 2016.
Where US Crude Oil Prices Could Close Next Week
On August 9, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 23.1%, which was ~1.3% below its 15-day average.
Upstream Space Might See Upside This Week
On November 2–9, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) rose 0.6%—the least among major energy ETFs.
Natural Gas: Are Winter Demand Fears Rising?
On January 2, 2018, natural gas (UNG) (BOIL) (FCG) February 2018 futures settled $0.025 less than February 2019 futures.
Bearish Midstream Stocks: Do You Own Them?
In the past three months, EnLink Midstream has risen 8.9%, while its short-interest-to-equity-float ratio has risen 30.9%.
Oil Inventory Spread Could Help Oil Prices Rise
On May 24, 2017, the EIA released crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 19, 2017. It reported a fall of ~4.4 MMbbls in oil inventories.
EIA Could Report Record Crude Oil Inventory Levels
US crude oil futures contracts for March delivery closed at $53.20 per barrel on February 14, 2017—0.5% more than the previous closing price.
Will the Oil Rig Count Increase Natural Gas Downside Risk?
Since 2008, the natural gas rig count has fallen ~89% from its record high. But the fall was unable to stop the rise in natural gas supplies.
Why Did Crude Oil Prices Rise?
On February 9, 2017, US crude oil futures contracts for March delivery closed at $53.00 per barrel—an ~1.3% rise compared to the previous trading session.
How Natural Gas ETFs Fared Last Week
Between October 27 and November 3, 2017, the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) rose just 0.2%, and natural gas December futures rose 0.7%.
Saudi Arabia Cutting Oil Exports: Which Stocks Could Gain?
On July 24, 2017, US crude oil (USO)(DBO)(USL) September futures rose 1.2% and closed at $46.34 per barrel.
Natural Gas above $3: Which Gas–Weighted Stocks Could Gain?
On September 1, natural gas (UNG) October futures closed at $3.07 per MMBtu (million British thermal units). On the same day, natural gas prices rose 1%.
China’s Economic Data Might Drag Oil Prices
On December 14, China reported the November industrial output growth at 5.4% on a year-over-year basis—the lowest growth since early 2016.
Better Earnings Impacted PXD’s Volatility and Returns
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) rose the most in the past five days and the last year. On February 7, 2017, it announced its 4Q16 earnings results.
XOP Is Underperforming Other Energy ETFs
On November 12–19, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) fell 1.6%—the largest decline among major energy ETFs.
Which Oil ETFs Fell Less than Oil Last Week?
On November 2–9, the United States Oil ETF (USO) and the United States 12-Month Oil ETF (USL) fell 4.6% and 3.8%, respectively.