US Crude Oil Rig Count: Turning Point for the Bear Market?

According to Baker Hughes (BHI), the US crude oil rig count rose by 11 to 758 on June 16–23, 2017. Rigs rose 1.5% week-over-week and 129.8% year-over-year.

US crude oil rigs have risen for 23 straight weeks. The rise in crude oil rigs could lead to a rise in production. High production would pressure oil prices. Lower crude oil prices have a negative impact on oil drillers like Baker Hughes (BHI), Atwood Oceanics (ATW), Transocean (RIG), and Halliburton (HAL).

The US crude oil rig count peaked at 1,609 in October 2014. Its low was 316 in the week ending May 27, 2016—the lowest level since the 1940s. Since then, the US crude oil rig count has risen 138%.

A market survey predicts that US crude oil production could hit an all-time high in 2018. The factors driving US production are mentioned below: 

• President Trump’s energy plans
• a massive rise in US crude oil rigs
• technological advancement
• improving US shale oil producers break even and production cost in 2017
• a rise in US crude oil exports 

According to the monthly US drilling productivity report, US crude oil production is at the highest level since early 2016. It’s expected to rise in the coming months.

US crude oil (USO) (UCO) (XLE) prices fell when rigs peaked the last time. An expectation of high rigs in 2018 suggests crude oil prices could trade lower in 2018.

Read Will US Crude Oil Prices Recover from 10-Month Lows? and Crude Oil Prices Could Collapse despite OPEC’s Production Cut for more on crude oil prices.

Read Will US Natural Gas and Crude Oil Follow the Same Trend? for more on natural gas prices.