The OPEC Dilemma: Will Crude Oil Prices Remain Bullish?

US crude oil (UWTI) (USO) (OIIL) (USL) (SCO) (DWTI) futures contracts for January delivery closed at $48.03 per barrel on November 22, 2016. The contracts were 0.40% lower than the previous closing price.

Crude oil prices fell on November 22, 2016, due to uncertainties surrounding OPEC’s (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) deal to reduce members’ crude oil output. Recent news suggests that Iran and Iraq are both unwilling to agree to OPEC’s production cut plan. Earlier, crude oil prices rose because of increased optimism surrounding the OPEC deal.

On November 22, 2016, the API (American Petroleum Institute) reported a fall of 1.3 MMbbls (million barrels) in crude oil inventories for the week ended November 18, 2016. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) will report its inventory data for the week ended November 18, 2016, on November 23, 2016.

Currently, crude oil futures are trading 0.50% above their 100-day moving average and 3.1% above their 20-day moving average. Prices trading above their 20-day and 100-day moving averages indicate a bullish sentiment for crude oil.

The 100-day and 20-day moving averages could act as a downside support for crude oil going forward. The above table shows the price performance of crude oil futures relative to these key moving averages.

Crude oil sentiments impact ETFs such as the United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO), the PowerShares DWA Energy Momentum ETF (PXI), the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE), and the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO).

In this series, we’ll analyze the effects of fundamental drivers on crude oil prices such as rig count, crude oil inventories, and the US Dollar Index.

Next, we’ll see how rig counts impact oil prices.