Why the S&P 500 Wasn’t Able to Capitalize on Oil’s Gains



Crude oil and the S&P 500 Index

For the week ending September 30, 2016, November US crude oil (UWTI) (USO) (OIIL) (USL) (SCO) (DWTI) futures rose 8.5%. The S&P 500 Index (SPY) (QQQ) (IVV) rose 0.2% during the week.

Among the SPDR ETFs, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) witnessed the highest rise. It rose ~4.4% between September 23 and September 30. The rise in crude oil prices in the week ending September 30 drove the gain in the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE).

Article continues below advertisement


In the past five trading sessions, crude oil and the S&P 500 Index moved in the same direction in two instances. Their correlation in the last five trading sessions stood at -28.3%. A negative correlation shows that oil prices could not support the equity market. However, the gain in oil prices could be responsible for a marginal gain in the S&P 500 Index. The other SPDR ETFs, except XLE, closed on a negative note for the week ended September 30, 2016.

Crude oil’s price is also a leading indicator for equity markets (SPY) (QQQ) (IVV), as a stronger economy means more demand for oil.

In the next and final part of our series, we’ll look at the implied volatilities of both crude oil and natural gas.


More From Market Realist